August 4 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cost Support and Weak Demand Continue to Contend, Phosphate Fertilizers Remain Weakly Consolidated

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 4, China's 55% powdered MAP index was 4,410.00, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powdered MAP index was 4,710.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's MAP market continued weak consolidation today. On the producer side, most factories were still fulfilling earlier orders, traders' offers varied, market prices were temporarily stable, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, seller sentiment was firm but constrained, buyers remained cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for price increases. On the demand side, inquiries from some downstream compound fertilizer producers have increased recently, along with the release of a small number of tenders, but purchases remain limited to small essential volumes and new orders are limited. On the raw material side, US-Iran-related conflict in the Middle East has shown signs of staged easing over the past two days, but the shipping-route risk premium has not fully faded, and the market remains highly alert to the possibility of renewed volatility. Domestic sulfur prices were deadlocked and consolidated today, with divergent trends, while overall sulfur port inventories remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated weakly and the price center moved lower. Phosphate rock stayed high and stable, leaving cost-side support still relatively strong. Overall, the MAP market is expected to continue running weakly in the short term. Further attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stockbuilding, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 4, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,445.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's DAP market remained stable and wait-and-see today. On the producer side, some companies focused mainly on shipping earlier pending orders, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable.On market side, sentiment still remained strongly wait-and-see. On the demand side, downstream purchasing was slow. Compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, purchasing willingness was generally weak, downstream inquiries were scattered, and actual order follow-through was relatively limited. On the raw material side, US-Iran-related conflict in the Middle East has shown signs of staged easing over the past two days, but the shipping-route risk premium has not fully faded, and the market remains highly alert to the possibility of renewed volatility. Domestic sulfur prices were deadlocked and consolidated today, with divergent trends, while overall sulfur port inventories remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices consolidated weakly. Phosphate rock prices remained high and stable, with raw material costs staying elevated and cost pressure continuing to increase, providing strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term. Further attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 4, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,150.00, down 0.11% from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,130.00, down 0.11%; powder and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 9,100.00, down 0.11%; powder and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,080.00, down 0.11%; East China solid sulfur was 9,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 9,100.00, down 0.49%.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Regional divergence in China's sulfur market became more pronounced today. At ports, offers for imported sulfur were scarce in early trading, buyer follow-through was weak, overall transactions were soft, and the port spot price center edged lower. Port granular sulfur spot prices were basically in line with morning expectations, while afternoon attention turned to actual transaction fulfillment for liquid sulfur and port cargoes. For domestic supply, prices in Northwest China remained supported, while solid sulfur spot prices in Shandong moved higher. Tight local refinery circulation supported spot prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation has shown signs of staged easing, and the market risk premium has narrowed, leaving industry participants generally in wait-and-see mode. Port holders showed some willingness to sell and monetize stocks, but offer adjustments were limited. Downstream interested buyers took the opportunity to test lower prices, and port spot cargoes have not yet seen volume transactions. By contrast, domestic solid sulfur was supported by tighter regional supply circulation, and Shandong solid sulfur moved independently higher, further widening regional divergence. Looking ahead, the Middle East geopolitical situation remains the core variable affecting sulfur prices, and any volatility will continue to disturb sentiment. In the short term, bullish and bearish factors are contending intensely. Imported port cargoes may still face weak adjustment because buyers are calm and holders' willingness to sell has increased. However, domestic solid sulfur has strong bottom support because refinery circulation is constrained, and regional price spreads may persist. Further attention should be paid to Middle East developments, port arrivals, and spot transactions. If geopolitical tensions heat up again, the market may quickly receive sentiment support; if the situation continues to ease, port prices may still have downside room. At the same time, close attention should be paid to downstream phosphate fertilizer operating rates and procurement demand. The actual implementation of autumn fertilizer stockbuilding will be a key constraint on the overall sulfur market.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 4: In Anhui, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,480-4,520/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 4: In Northeast China, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 4: In Henan, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,430-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 4: In Hubei, mainstream ex-works prices for 55% powdered MAP were around RMB 4,350-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

August 4: In Jiangsu, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 4: In Shandong, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 4: In Sichuan, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 4: In Yunnan, ex-works prices for 55% powdered MAP were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

August 4: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

August 4: In Northeast China, 64% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

August 4: In Hebei, 57% DAP was offered for self-pickup at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers lowered.

August 4: In Hubei, 64% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

August 4: In Shandong, 64% DAP was offered ex-warehouse for self-pickup at RMB 4,900-5,000/tonne, with offers stable; 57% DAP was offered at the station for self-pickup at RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.