2025 China Urea Industry Annual Report

Contents

• Chapter 1: Urea Product Overview

  1. Concept of Urea
  2. Urea Production Methods
  3. Urea Industry Chain Diagram

• Chapter 2: Analysis of China’s Urea Market in 2025

  1. Overview of China’s Urea Market
  2. Monthly Average Prices in China’s Urea Market

• Chapter 3: Analysis of China’s Urea Capacity in 2025

• Chapter 4: Analysis of China’s Urea Output, Operating Rates, and Imports & Exports in 2025

  1. Analysis of China’s Urea Output
  2. Analysis of China’s Urea Industry Operating Rate
  3. Analysis of China’s Urea Export Volume
     1. Analysis of China’s Urea Export Volume
     2. Analysis of China’s Urea Export Destinations

• Chapter 5: Analysis of China’s Apparent Urea Consumption in 2025

• Chapter 6: Analysis of China’s Urea Inventories in 2025

  1. Port Inventory Trend of Large-Granule Urea
  2. Port Inventory Trend of Small-Granule Urea
  3. Urea Enterprise Inventory Trend

• Chapter 7: Brief Overview of the Downstream Compound Fertilizer Market in 2025

  1. Compound Fertilizer Market Prices
  2. Operating Rate of Compound Fertilizer Enterprises
  3. Inventories of Compound Fertilizer Enterprises

• Chapter 8: Outlook for China’s Urea Market in 2026

Chapter 1: Urea Product Overview

1. Concept of Urea

Urea, also known as carbamide or carbonyl diamide, has the chemical formula CH4N2O or CO(NH2)2. It is an organic compound composed of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and hydrogen, and appears as a white crystal. It is one of the simplest organic compounds and is the main nitrogen-containing end product of protein metabolism in mammals and certain fish.

As a neutral fertilizer, urea is suitable for various soils and crops. It is easy to store, convenient to use, and causes little damage to soil. It is one of the most widely used chemical nitrogen fertilizers and has the highest nitrogen content among nitrogen fertilizers. Industrially, urea is synthesized from ammonia and carbon dioxide under certain conditions.

2. Urea Production Methods

Method 1: Carbon dioxide and ammonia are used to synthesize ammonium carbamate under high temperature and high pressure. After decomposition, absorption, and conversion, urea is obtained through crystallization, separation, and drying.

Method 2: Purified ammonia and carbon dioxide are mixed at a molar ratio of 2.8-4.5 and fed into a synthesis tower. The pressure inside the tower is 13.8-24.6 MPa, the temperature is 180-200°C, and the reaction material residence time is 25-40 minutes. A urea solution containing excess ammonia and ammonium carbamate is obtained. After pressure reduction and cooling, the urea solution from which ammonia and ammonium carbamate have been separated is evaporated to above 99.5%, and then granulated in a prilling tower to obtain finished urea.

Method 3: Urea is the final product of protein metabolism in mammals. In 1922, industrial production of urea from ammonia and carbon dioxide was realized in Germany. Ammonia reacts with carbon dioxide to form ammonium carbamate, which is then dehydrated to form urea.

Industrial production method: Industrially, liquid ammonia and carbon dioxide are used as raw materials to directly synthesize urea under high temperature and high pressure. The chemical reaction is as follows:

2NH3 + CO2 → NH2COONH4 → CO(NH2)2 + H2O

3. Urea Industry Chain Diagram

Main upstream materials: coal, natural gas, synthetic ammonia.

Main downstream applications:

1. Agricultural demand:

Direct application: Agricultural demand accounts for more than 70% of total urea demand. As urea has the highest nitrogen content among solid nitrogen fertilizers and is a neutral fertilizer, it leaves no harmful substances in the soil and is the largest fertilizer product by output in China. Urea application volumes vary by crop. Corn, vegetables, cotton, and rice have the highest urea application per mu, while soybeans use relatively less urea due to their growth characteristics.

Processing into compound fertilizer: Compound fertilizer demand accounts for around 14% of urea consumption. In compound fertilizer production, urea is the main source of nitrogen, mainly in small- and medium-granule form. Compound fertilizer is made from nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium nutrients through physical or chemical methods. Based on the number of nutrients added, it can be divided into binary compound fertilizer and ternary compound fertilizer.

1. Industrial demand:

Melamine synthesis: Urea consumption in the melamine industry accounts for around 7% of total urea consumption.

Urea-formaldehyde resin: This is one way to relieve sales pressure on urea producers during the off-season for urea consumption.

Automotive urea: Generally composed of 32.5% high-purity urea and 67.5% deionized water. It is used for engine exhaust treatment.

Power plant desulfurization and denitrification: Under high-temperature conditions, urea is used as a reducing agent to react and generate nitrogen and water vapor. Demand from thermal power desulfurization and denitrification accounts for around 6% of total urea demand.

In addition, small amounts are used in feed additives, fine chemicals, and other fields.

Chapter 2: Analysis of China’s Urea Market in 2025

1. Overview of China’s Urea Market

In 2025, China’s domestic urea market generally showed an oversupplied pattern. New capacity continued to be released throughout the year, keeping total industry supply at a high level, while demand-side performance was generally flat. Agricultural demand fluctuated according to seasonal patterns, while industrial demand was relatively weak due to factors such as the construction sector.

To address the domestic supply-demand imbalance, the government implemented export adjustment policies at appropriate times, encouraging some cargoes to flow into the international market. This eased domestic supply pressure to some extent. However, under high inventories and generally weak market sentiment, the annual price center remained under clear pressure.

According to FDD data, the domestic small-granule urea price index reached its annual high of 1,988.05 on March 28 and fell to its annual low of 1,620.45 on November 3. The price spread was around 377.60, with a spread range of approximately 18.49%.

Stage 1: Early January to Late March

Initial Decline Followed by Recovery, with Month-by-Month Improvement

Influencing factors:

1. Rhythmic changes on the demand side;
2. Supply-side strategies and pressure;
3. Market expectations and seasonal patterns.

In early January, the market continued the weakness seen at the end of the previous year. Under the dual pressure of seasonal contraction in industrial demand and manufacturers offering discounts to complete Spring Festival orders, prices fell to a quarterly and even annual phased low.

The real turning point began in mid-to-late January. The start of rigid agricultural fertilizer preparation demand, together with persistent market rumors about potential export opportunities, jointly ignited procurement sentiment. This helped manufacturers receive orders smoothly and enabled prices to stop falling and stabilize.

After the “Spring Festival effect” in February, the market briefly corrected around the Lantern Festival before quickly returning to an upward track, driven by concentrated agricultural procurement in Northeast China and high operating rates at compound fertilizer plants.

In March, although the market faced pressure from the release of off-season reserve cargoes and high daily output, factories successfully reduced inventories under the support of continuously strong industrial demand, especially from compound fertilizer. Prices fluctuated upward and reached the annual high at the end of the month.

Overall, rhythmic demand release was the core driver behind the step-by-step rise in the first-quarter market.

Stage 2: Early April to Late June

End of the Early-Year Uptrend, Followed by High-Level Pullback and Policy-Driven Volatility

Influencing factors:

1. Macro environment and market sentiment;
2. Export policy;
3. Sudden events in the international market.

In April, prices declined continuously from high levels under the pressure of an agricultural demand gap, weakened global financial market sentiment, and trader sell-offs. Enterprise inventories accumulated again.

Entering May, the much-watched export policy details were basically implemented, clarifying the principles of “self-regulated and orderly exports” and “domestic supply assurance and price stabilization.” Policy shifted from expectation-driven support to actual regulation. After the news became clearer, market heat declined, and prices moved within a narrow range.

The June market was more volatile. In the first half of the month, prices fell rapidly due to delayed demand and falling futures prices. They then saw a brief but strong rebound, stimulated by a sharp rise in international prices caused by geopolitical conflict and an increase in domestic port collection volumes. However, the market later returned to concerns over weak follow-up demand and uncertainty around export policy. Prices fluctuated frequently, with the overall market oscillating at low levels.

Looking across the second quarter, the core market driver shifted from “domestic rigid demand” in the first quarter to “the game between export policy and the international market.” Prices became highly sensitive to news, reflecting the complex process of finding a new equilibrium under a broadly loose supply-demand environment.

Stage 3: Early July to Late September

Weak Downtrend, with High Supply and Weak Demand in Continued Competition

Influencing factors:

1. Downstream buyers purchased small volumes as needed, with insufficient demand;
2. The positive effect of export benefits continued to weaken.

This stage generally showed a weak trend of downward movement. The core contradiction fully shifted from external policy games to internal pressure from weak demand and high supply fundamentals.

In July, the market fluctuated widely under multiple short-term catalysts including agricultural topdressing, international tenders, and macro policy. However, the high guidance price for export quotas and slow implementation weakened bullish support.

Entering August, although new export quota news was released continuously, domestic agricultural and industrial demand declined simultaneously. As a result, the support from positive news for spot prices became increasingly short-lived, and prices continued to edge lower after brief rebounds.

By September, weak domestic demand became the absolute dominant factor. Downstream expectations for the traditional “Golden September” peak season failed to materialize. Factories continuously lowered prices to attract orders before the National Day holiday, causing prices to accelerate downward and approach early-year lows. Even repeated export quota news during the period failed to reverse bearish market sentiment.

Throughout the quarter, the market gradually lost rebound momentum amid sustained high output and repeatedly disappointed weak demand, with the price center moving lower month by month.

Stage 4: Late September to Late December

Supply-Demand Competition, Initial Weakness Followed by Recovery, and Firm Volatility Toward Year-End

Influencing factors:

1. Substantial support from export policy;
2. Positive effects from external markets and events;
3. Seasonal and short-term factors causing disruptions and adjustments.

The October market remained under pressure. After the National Day holiday, rainy weather delayed agricultural activities, exports were nearing completion, and enterprise inventories accumulated, causing prices to once fall below the previous annual low. In late October, policy communication meetings boosted confidence, and prices stopped falling and edged higher.

Entering November, the market strengthened beyond expectations. A new batch of export quotas of around 600,000 tonnes effectively boosted trading sentiment. Combined with concentrated reserve demand in Northeast China, factory inventories declined and prices fluctuated upward.

By December, the market maintained a firm and volatile pattern. Industrial rigid demand from compound fertilizer and other sectors continued to provide support. Although prices loosened in mid-December due to environmental alerts in many regions that reduced downstream operating rates, market sentiment recovered again afterward, supported by news such as India’s tender. In late December, amid a stalemate of reduced supply and demand, prices ended the year at high levels.

Overall, the market driver in this quarter successfully shifted from weak domestic demand in the early stage to export expectations and rigid reserve demand in the later stage, allowing the price center to rise month by month.

2. Monthly Average Prices in China’s Urea Market

China’s urea market prices this year were all lower than the same period last year, with the price gap most obvious in the middle of the year.

Chapter 3: Analysis of China’s Urea Capacity in 2025

According to FDD data, domestic urea capacity in 2025 was 77.70 million tonnes, with actual new capacity of around 2.36 million tonnes, up 3.13% year-on-year.

In 2025, China’s urea industry capacity continued to expand, with significant new capacity added throughout the year. This further strengthened domestic urea supply capacity and kept total output at a historical high.

From a production structure perspective, coal-based urea dominated. Against the backdrop of continuous capacity release, the industry’s overall capacity utilization rate remained high, with operating rates above 80% for most of the year.

In February, Jingyuan Coal Industry Group Liuhua Chemical Co., Ltd. officially put 350,000 tonnes/year of new urea capacity into operation.

In April, Jiangsu Jinmei Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. officially put 600,000 tonnes/year of new urea capacity into operation.

In August and September, Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng Chemical Co., Ltd. put a 600,000 tonnes/year unit into the market; Shandong Jinkong Riyue New Materials Co., Ltd. put a 200,000 tonnes/year unit into the market; Xinjiang Xinji Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. put a 1 million tonnes/year unit into the market; and Jiangxi Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. put a 100-tonnes/year unit into the market.

In October and November, Gansu Nenghua Jinchang Energy Chemical Development Co., Ltd. put a 520,000 tonnes/year unit into the market; and Xinjiang Zhongneng Lvyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. put a 1.6 million tonnes/year unit into the market.

Chapter 4: Analysis of China’s Urea Output, Operating Rates, and Imports & Exports in 2025

1. Analysis of China’s Urea Output

According to FDD data, China’s cumulative urea output in 2025 was 70.95 million tonnes, an increase of 5.0154 million tonnes from the same period last year, up 7.61% year-on-year.

In 2025, domestic urea output increased month-on-month, and enterprise production continued to maintain growth. The commissioning of new industry capacity this year and relatively loose natural gas supply led to a clear increase in supply. Daily output reached a peak of 200,000 tonnes. Rising output suppressed the upside space for urea prices to some extent, and supply-side factors remained mainly bearish throughout the year.

2. Analysis of China’s Urea Industry Operating Rate

According to FDD data, the average operating rate of China’s urea industry in 2025 was 84.16%, up 2.19% from the same period last year. The operating rate reached a high of 89.83% in early June and a low of 78.03% in mid-October.

Among them, the operating rate of natural gas-based urea enterprises was 69.05%, while that of coal-based urea enterprises was 88.90%. The operating rate of large-granule units was 83.85%, and that of small- and medium-granule units was 84.18%.

In 2025, the operating rate of domestic urea enterprises rose month-on-month. This was the result of continuous release of new capacity, loose coal supply, and active production by enterprises to secure shipments and market share. From the full-year trend, operating rates showed the characteristics of “stable at high levels with narrow fluctuations.” This directly pushed average daily urea output to remain above 190,000 tonnes for a long period, with full-year output expected to reach a five-year high.

Sustained high operating rates and high output ensured ample market supply, but also intensified the domestic supply-demand imbalance, becoming one of the core factors suppressing urea prices and industry profits.

3. Analysis of China’s Urea Export Volume

  (1) Analysis of China’s Urea Export Volume

According to customs data, China’s cumulative urea export volume in 2024 was 4.8947 million tonnes, an increase of 4.6328 million tonnes from the same period last year, up 1,769.14% year-on-year.

In 2025, China’s urea exports showed a pattern of “significant total growth and a low-first, high-later trend.” This notable growth was mainly attributable to the export quota management system implemented during the year. Three batches of quotas totaled around 4.6 million tonnes, and the opening of policy windows was the key factor behind the export volume increase, effectively easing domestic high-supply pressure.

  (2) Analysis of China’s Urea Export Destinations

In 2025, the top three destinations for China’s urea exports were Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Mexico. Export volumes were 599,700 tonnes, 550,000 tonnes, and 470,800 tonnes, respectively.

Chapter 5: Analysis of China’s Apparent Urea Consumption in 2025

According to FDD data, China’s cumulative apparent urea consumption in 2025 was 70.7648 million tonnes, an increase of 5.0877 million tonnes from the same period last year, up 7.75% year-on-year.

China’s apparent urea consumption showed a significant growth trend this year. High industry supply during the year was the result of both “high supply growth” and “increased net exports,” while the growth rate of actual domestic agricultural and industrial demand was relatively moderate.

Chapter 6: Analysis of China’s Urea Inventories in 2025

1. Port Inventory Trend of Large-Granule Urea

According to FDD data, full-year port inventories reached their highest level in early September at 404,000 tonnes, and their lowest level in mid-November at 54,000 tonnes.

In 2025, port inventories of large-granule urea remained higher than the same period last year, with the most obvious increase in September. Large-granule port inventories were at high levels. At the start of the year, inventories were low amid export restrictions. As export policy became clearer after May, traders became more willing to collect cargoes at ports, and inventories began to accumulate continuously, reaching an annual high above 400,000 tonnes in September.

Entering the end of the third quarter, affected by the concentrated execution of export orders such as India’s tender, port shipments accelerated and inventories declined significantly. For the full year, port inventory levels were closely related to the pace of export policy and arbitrage opportunities between domestic and international markets. Inventory fluctuations also directly reflected the strength of domestic surplus output being channeled into international markets.

2. Port Inventory Trend of Small-Granule Urea

According to FDD data, full-year port inventories reached their highest level in late September at 251,000 tonnes, and their lowest level in January at 17,000 tonnes.

The full-year trend of small-granule urea port inventories in 2025 clearly reflected the change in export policy from strict control to gradual relaxation. At the start of the year, under export restrictions, port inventories were extremely low, standing at only 17,000 tonnes in early February.

Entering the middle of the year, as export policy gradually became clearer after May, traders showed strong willingness to collect cargoes at ports. Inventories began to accumulate significantly and reached a high level in the third quarter. In mid-September, inventories rose to 251,000 tonnes, increasing by nearly 25% in just one week.

Later, as export orders were executed intensively and cargoes left ports more quickly, inventories fell rapidly from high levels and returned to a relatively stable port collection rhythm by year-end. Overall, inventory fluctuations were closely linked to export quota releases, international tenders, and domestic port collection and shipment operations, making them a key indicator for observing how domestic surplus pressure was channeled into international markets.

3. Urea Enterprise Inventory Trend

According to FDD data, full-year enterprise inventories reached their highest level in early February at 1.7459 million tonnes, and their lowest level in early April at 754,200 tonnes.

Across 2025, domestic urea enterprise inventories generally operated at high levels, with significant pressure, reflecting the core supply-demand imbalance. The key driver of inventory trends was the deep contradiction between sustained high domestic supply and seasonally fluctuating demand. Although export policy was relaxed somewhat after mid-year and promoted slight inventory destocking during certain periods, the overall export volume was limited and subject to multiple restrictions, failing to fundamentally reverse the broadly loose supply-demand pattern.

Therefore, high inventories continued to suppress market sentiment and became a core factor constraining urea price performance.

Chapter 7: Brief Overview of the Downstream Compound Fertilizer Market in 2025

1. Compound Fertilizer Market Prices

In 2025, compound fertilizer prices were mostly affected by raw material markets, supply-demand logic, and policy factors. Prices showed a continuous narrow upward trend, with limited overall changes and stable operation.

Stage 1: Early January to Early May

Initial Weakness Followed by Recovery

In January, the market was stable to weak. Affected by falling prices of raw materials such as urea and poor shipments, some enterprises cut prices to promote sales, and the price center moved lower.

From February to March, the market saw a strong rebound. After the Spring Festival, raw material products including nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium collectively rose, while concentrated spring fertilizer demand was released, driving active market transactions and price increases.

However, after entering April, the market showed signs of fatigue. Support from high-priced raw materials weakened, and follow-up for new summer fertilizer orders was slow, causing prices of products such as corn fertilizer to appear stable on the surface but weaken in actual transactions.

By early to mid-May, amid the interaction of bullish and bearish factors such as speculation and pullback around export policy and the end of summer fertilizer replenishment, the market turned to weak narrow-range consolidation. Enterprises mostly produced based on sales, and price fluctuations were limited.

Stage 2: Early May to Late July

Stable Transition

From late May to June, the main market theme was the conclusion of summer corn fertilizer demand. Affected by fluctuations in raw material prices such as urea and the suspension of binary fertilizer export policy, the market generally consolidated weakly.

Entering mid-to-late June, with the end of summer demand, the market entered the traditional off-season. Enterprises shifted focus to autumn wheat fertilizer and successively started pre-sales with preferential policies such as price guarantees and interest-bearing terms. However, few new prices were released, and the market generally stabilized.

In July, the market formally entered the autumn fertilizer pre-sale stage. Supported strongly by collective increases in raw material costs, the market turned stable to firm. Enterprises were forced to recalculate new prices, and some earlier low-priced orders stopped being accepted, causing the price center to move upward, especially for balanced fertilizer and high-nitrogen products.

However, downstream distributors remained weak in fertilizer stocking and pickup enthusiasm. In addition, price stabilization policies for potassium fertilizer created wait-and-see sentiment, limiting market trading activity. After rising on cost support, prices shifted to narrow-range consolidation.

Stage 3: Late July to Late December

Cost-Pushed Increases

July to August was the autumn fertilizer pre-sale stage. Driven by collective increases in raw material costs including urea, ammonium phosphate, and potassium fertilizer, the market was stable to firm, and the price center moved upward.

Entering September and October, as autumn fertilizer moved into the second half of the season, terminal demand was released slowly and fell short of previous years. In addition, raw material prices such as urea and ammonium phosphate fell from high levels, weakening both cost and sentiment support. The market turned volatile and weak, and enterprises increased flexible transactions to promote shipments.

However, starting in November, driven by record-high sulfur and sulfuric acid prices that pushed ammonium phosphate strongly higher, as well as renewed increases in urea prices, cost pressure rose sharply. This drove the market into a sustained upward channel, with particularly significant increases in sulfur-based fertilizers and high-content products.

By December, prices continued to rise under heavy cost pressure. However, with policy regulation intervention, environmental production restrictions, and limited downstream acceptance of high prices, the market entered a high-level stalemate with “prices but few transactions.”

2. Operating Rate of Compound Fertilizer Enterprises

According to FDD data, the average operating rate of China’s compound fertilizer industry in 2025 was 38.33%, down 0.46% from last year. The highest full-year operating rate appeared around early March at 57.75%, while the lowest appeared around mid-October at 24.18%.

In 2025, domestic compound fertilizer enterprise operating rates generally showed a pattern of “initial decline followed by recovery, overall stability compared with last year, and relatively low absolute levels.” In the first quarter, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, operating rates once fell to low levels, then quickly rebounded after the holiday, showing a “V-shaped” trend of falling, rising, and then pulling back. The average operating rate during the quarter was around 42%.

Entering the second and third quarters, operating rates basically fluctuated within a narrow range of 40%-43.5%. For example, they reached 43.48% in mid-August and ranged between 39.2% and 41.5% in early September.

Core factors affecting full-year operating rates included seasonal agricultural demand cycles, with spring and autumn fertilizer preparation peak seasons lifting operating rates; strict environmental protection policies, especially in North China; fluctuations in upstream straight fertilizer prices such as urea, which affected costs and market sentiment; and structural divergence within the industry, with large enterprises maintaining high loads while some small and medium-sized enterprises operated at low loads or suspended production.

Overall, operating rates changed clearly with demand cycles, but the industry’s overall supply pattern remained loose.

3. Inventories of Compound Fertilizer Enterprises

According to FDD data, the average inventory of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises in 2025 was 744,900 tonnes, an increase of 80,400 tonnes from last year. Full-year enterprise inventories reached their highest level in mid-February at 928,400 tonnes and their lowest level in mid-March at 557,300 tonnes.

Before the Spring Festival, enterprises continued to build inventories to ensure supply. Combined with disruptions to truck transportation, inventories rose. During the Spring Festival, except for some rail shipments, most truck transportation was stagnant, and enterprise inventories remained high.

In March, inventories fell sharply to the annual low for three reasons: first, warmer weather promoted spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation, releasing rigid demand; second, rising prices improved market sentiment; third, phased price increases by enterprises accelerated shipments of earlier orders.

During the summer and autumn fertilizer preparation stages, enterprises raised operating rates in anticipation of demand. However, downstream distributors were extremely cautious in procurement due to poor agricultural product prices, weather factors, and insufficient confidence in the market outlook. Fertilizer stocking demand was repeatedly delayed and did not see concentrated release, causing enterprise inventories to accumulate continuously from late July and reach high levels in mid-August.

In the second half of the year, as seasonal stocking activities ended and enterprises adjusted production, inventories began to slowly decline from autumn highs. However, against the industry backdrop of low full-year capacity utilization but ample actual supply, combined with a supply-demand stalemate caused by high raw material costs suppressing downstream purchasing willingness, inventory destocking was generally slow. By year-end, inventory levels had declined from earlier highs, but the industry’s overall high-inventory risk had not been fundamentally resolved.

Chapter 8: Outlook for China’s Urea Market in 2026

On the supply side, new urea capacity will continue to come online in 2026, and both total industry capacity and effective output will rise simultaneously. Supply pressure will become the core theme for the full year. Supported by stable thermal coal prices, coal-based urea units are expected to maintain high operating rates, and overall industry output is expected to grow steadily year-on-year. Even if prices decline periodically, the industry’s overall negative feedback will be limited, making the high-supply pattern difficult to reverse. The market will face long-term pressure from ample cargo availability.

On the demand side, agricultural demand remains the core pillar of domestic urea consumption. Spring fertilizer preparation, summer topdressing, and autumn fertilizer use will form three phased demand peaks, providing seasonal support to prices. Industrial demand is relatively weak. Affected by weak prosperity in downstream sectors such as panels and melamine, industrial urea demand is unlikely to see significant growth. Overall demand growth is expected to lag behind supply growth, making it difficult for domestic fundamentals to form a tight supply-demand balance.

On the export side, exports will become the key to balancing domestic oversupply and achieving “supply assurance and price stabilization.” It is expected that in 2026, a limited and orderly export model based on “quota system + window period” will continue to be implemented. The market generally believes that to effectively offset domestic supply pressure, actual export volume may need to reach 5 million to 8 million tonnes. The final scale will depend on the flexibility of policy adjustments. In addition, declining global fertilizer price affordability and the concentrated procurement pace of major importing countries will also bring external challenges to exports.

Overall, high supply will remain the operating backdrop for urea prices next year, while seasonal fluctuations in demand will affect short-term supply-demand balance. The future supply-demand relationship in the urea industry will remain relatively loose. Against the backdrop of high domestic supply and moderate domestic demand, the urea price center in 2026 is expected to move slightly lower, with the overall market showing a pattern of “wide-range fluctuations and high first, then low.” In the first half of the year, prices are expected to be relatively firm, supported by spring fertilizer preparation and concentrated exports. In the second half of the year, if demand weakens and exports fail to exceed expectations, downward price pressure will increase.

The actual execution strength of export policy will be the most critical variable affecting price highs and lows. Next year, the impact of exports on the urea market will still need to be considered together with policy factors and domestic-foreign price spreads, and will remain highly uncertain.

In conclusion, the fertilizer market may face more influencing factors in the future. Spot prices are likely to hover at low levels, and during the demand off-season, the market may continue to move closer to the cost side in stages. Market participants should continue to closely monitor trading rhythms, follow market developments, and make appropriate decisions.