Phosphate Fertilizer Monthly: Geopolitical Disruptions Raise Sulfur Costs While Weak Fertilizer Demand Limits Price Follow-Through (July 2026)

1. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis and Outlook
1.1 MAP Market Price Analysis
1.2 DAP Market Price Analysis
1.3 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook
2. Operating Rates in China's Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
2.1 Domestic MAP Operating Rate
2.2 Domestic DAP Operating Rate
3. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Output Trends
3.1 Domestic MAP Output
3.2 Domestic DAP Output
4. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Export Data
4.1 Domestic MAP Export Data
4.2 Domestic DAP Export Data
5. Domestic Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Fertilizers
5.1 Domestic MAP Apparent Consumption
5.2 Domestic DAP Apparent Consumption
6. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends
6.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventories
6.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventories
7. Sulfur Market Price Analysis for the Month
7.1 Domestic Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook
8. Sulfur Industry Operating Conditions
8.1 Domestic Sulfur Operating Rate
8.2 Domestic Sulfur Output
9. Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Trends
10. Domestic Solid Sulfur Arrivals at Ports

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis and Outlook

1.1 MAP Market Price Analysis

In July, China's monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market was generally stable to weak and edged lower, with high costs providing a floor while weak demand weighed on the market. Elevated aggregate raw-material costs established bottom support, but persistently weak downstream demand kept posted prices relatively stable while actual transaction levels gradually declined and trading remained subdued. Sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels, sulfuric acid retreated periodically, and phosphate rock prices remained stable. Production-cost pressure therefore showed little meaningful relief and limited the scope for a steep price decline. At the beginning of the month, the market remained deadlocked and cautious. Producers were willing to defend prices because of high costs. Downstream compound-fertilizer producers began presales for autumn fertilizer, but low operating rates, slow finished-product sales, and ample earlier raw-material purchases weakened restocking interest and limited new orders. In mid-month, posted prices appeared stable while actual transaction levels slipped. Autumn fertilizer activity fell short of expectations, end-user purchases were sluggish, compound-fertilizer producers did not restock in volume, and traders faced rising sales pressure. At month-end, weakness persisted and more low-priced supply emerged. Sulfur prices rebounded and cost pressure remained pronounced, but the slow start to autumn fertilizer demand kept purchases limited to small, need-based replenishment. With few large orders, transaction levels continued to decline. Overall, high costs capped the downside while weak off-season demand constrained upward momentum, leaving the market volatile and slightly weak. Attention remained focused on the timing of autumn fertilizer stockbuilding.

According to Feidoodoo data, as of July 31, 2026, China's 55% powdered MAP index stood at 4,413.75, down 21.25 from the beginning of the month and 0.48% month on month. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, unchanged from the beginning of the month and month on month. The 58% powdered MAP index was 4,710.00, also unchanged from the beginning of the month and month on month.

During the first half of the month, the MAP market was stable to weak. Phosphate rock prices remained firm, while geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East kept sulfur prices elevated. Producers faced pronounced cost pressure and maintained firm offers. Demand, however, failed to support the market. Summer agricultural top-dressing approached completion, domestic compound-fertilizer plants operated at low rates, and downstream buyers made only limited essential inquiries, with little appetite for large-scale stockbuilding. Export policy constraints remained in place, preventing overseas channels from absorbing supply. Trading was subdued and prices remained deadlocked at high levels.

During the second half of the month, the MAP market consolidated weakly. Raw-material prices fluctuated at high levels and cost pressure remained significant, continuing to limit the downside. Domestic demand showed little prospect of near-term growth, and producers reduced inventories only gradually. Attention shifted toward the implementation of export policies and the timing of autumn raw-material purchases by compound-fertilizer producers. Downstream buyers maintained a need-based purchasing strategy, bargaining intensified, and the spot market lacked a directional driver, leaving prices rangebound.

1.2 DAP Market Price Analysis

In July, China's diammonium phosphate (DAP) market consolidated at high levels with a weak bias, supported by firm costs but constrained by poor off-season demand. Raw-material prices fluctuated at elevated levels and production costs remained high, providing solid bottom support. As sulfur supplies allocated for domestic supply assurance arrived, some units restarted, lifting industry operating rates and increasing supply. Producers focused mainly on fulfilling previously pending orders, while new business remained difficult to secure. At the beginning of the month, the market was stable but deadlocked. High costs supported firm offers, but seasonal weakness reduced downstream purchasing interest, new orders were insufficient, and trading was quiet. In mid-month, weak consolidation continued. Unit restarts increased supply, but demand showed no meaningful improvement. End users were reluctant to accept expensive material, while rainy weather slowed stockbuilding and further weakened transactions. At month-end, the market remained weakly deadlocked at high levels. Raw-material costs continued to provide support, but inquiries and purchases remained sluggish, with only scattered essential transactions and no sign of fundamental improvement. Overall, high costs limited the downside, while weak off-season demand and incremental supply continued to weigh on the market, keeping it within a narrow range.

According to Feidoodoo data, as of July 31, 2026, China's 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,571.67, unchanged from the beginning of the month and month on month. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, also unchanged. The 57% DAP index was 4,432.50, up 7.50 from the beginning of the month and 0.17% month on month.

During the first half of the month, the DAP market consolidated at high levels. The escalating US-Iran conflict and renewed statements about blocking the Strait of Hormuz provided both cost and sentiment support to China's sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices remained high and firm, port inventories stayed low, sulfuric acid traded at high levels, and phosphate rock prices also remained elevated. Persistently expensive raw materials kept DAP production costs under heavy pressure, leaving the industry in a prolonged cost-price inversion. Demand remained depressed during the traditional fertilizer-use gap. Autumn sowing stockbuilding had not started in volume, compound-fertilizer plants operated at low rates, and buyers purchased only small volumes for routine needs. Frequent rainfall further weakened trading.

During the second half of the month, the DAP market remained deadlocked and rangebound. Continued US-Iran confrontation and uncertainty over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz sustained geopolitical support for sulfur. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated at high levels, port inventories remained low, and both sulfuric acid and phosphate rock continued to trade at elevated levels, providing solid cost support. Downstream purchasing remained weak. Compound-fertilizer plants generally operated at low rates, buying interest was limited, inquiries were scattered, and actual orders remained insufficient to generate meaningful volume.

1.3 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

Raw Materials

Phosphate Rock: Resource controls and the pace of mining and shipments are keeping supply broadly stable, with incremental output released only slowly. Essential demand from phosphate fertilizers and phosphorus chemicals remains in place, while routine industry inventory management provides fundamental bottom support. As autumn fertilizer stockbuilding approaches, raw-material demand from phosphate fertilizer producers may improve marginally. Continued rigid demand from the new-energy supply chain also supports phosphate rock prices. Overall, downside room is limited. Price movements will depend more on the recovery in operating rates at downstream phosphorus chemical plants, with mainstream prices expected to remain firm.

Sulfur: High-level volatility is expected to persist, with neither gains nor declines supported by a lasting one-way driver. Global supply flows remain disrupted by geopolitical conditions, imported supply is uncertain, and domestic port spot inventories are relatively low, providing underlying support. Near-term phosphate fertilizer demand has not yet started in volume and producers remain cautious about raw-material restocking, limiting sustained upside. As autumn fertilizer preparation advances, raw-material purchases by phosphate fertilizer producers may improve and support spot consumption. Key variables include overseas shipping, international offers, and the arrival pace of imported cargoes. Without a large concentration of arrivals, a substantial price decline will be difficult, and rangebound trading is expected.

Sulfuric Acid: Regional divergence has become more pronounced and the market is fluctuating overall. On the supply side, smelter by-product acid and sulfur-burning acid are offsetting one another, while some producers adjust operating rates according to profitability. Sulfur-burning acid costs continue to track sulfur prices. Near-term demand remains under pressure because phosphate fertilizer operating rates are low and overall consumption is limited. Longer term, DAP and MAP restarts and autumn fertilizer stockbuilding may produce marginal demand improvement. The market remains caught between cost support and weak off-season demand. Near-term upside is limited, but elevated raw-material costs restrict the downside, and regional price gaps may persist because of differences in supply flows and fundamentals.

Overall, phosphate rock retains strong rigid support; sulfur carries greater volatility risk because of geopolitical and import variables; and sulfuric acid shows regional strength and weakness in line with upstream and downstream fundamentals. Ultimately, all three markets will depend on the implementation of autumn phosphate fertilizer stockbuilding and changes in raw-material flows.

Supply and Demand

Supply: Elevated phosphate rock and sulfur prices are keeping industry production costs high. Small and medium-sized producers face squeezed margins and may adjust operating rates flexibly, while supply-assurance capacity continues to produce steadily and some units have scheduled maintenance. As more reasonably priced raw materials arrive, leading producers may lift operating rates slightly, but high costs limit the willingness to raise output sharply. Incremental supply should emerge gradually rather than in a concentrated surge. Producers will prioritize pending orders, keeping the release of spot supply under control.

Demand: The market remains in the traditional short-demand period. Compound-fertilizer operating rates are low, purchases remain need-based, and large-scale stockbuilding has not started. As autumn agricultural preparation approaches, compound-fertilizer presales and operating rates are expected to improve, supporting a marginal recovery in raw-material demand. However, phosphate fertilizer prices remain relatively high and end-user acceptance is limited, so demand is likely to emerge gradually rather than surge.

Overall, the short-term supply-demand struggle will continue, with costs limiting the potential for a steep decline. Whether the market strengthens over the medium term will depend primarily on the implementation of autumn stockbuilding and the persistence of concentrated downstream purchases.

02 Operating Rates in China's Phosphate Fertilizer Industry

2.1 Domestic MAP Operating Rate

The average monthly operating rate of China's MAP industry was approximately 56.57%, up 7.59% month on month but down 3.62% year on year. The operating rate increased during the month but remained below the same period last year.

2.2 Domestic DAP Operating Rate

The average monthly operating rate of China's DAP industry was approximately 39.96%, up 3.08% month on month but down 23.21% year on year. The operating rate increased during the month but remained below the same period last year.

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Output Trends

3.1 Domestic MAP Output

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic MAP output totaled 995,600 tonnes this month, up 163,000 tonnes or 19.58% from the previous month, but down 64,400 tonnes or 6.08% year on year.

3.2 Domestic DAP Output

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic DAP output totaled approximately 789,400 tonnes this month, up 84,300 tonnes or 11.96% from the previous month, but down 440,800 tonnes or 35.83% year on year.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Export Data

4.1 Domestic MAP Export Data

Customs data show that China exported 800 tonnes of MAP in June 2026, up 600 tonnes or 281.82% month on month, but down 154,000 tonnes or 99.49% year on year. The average export price was USD 703.00/tonne. Cumulative exports in January-December 2026 totaled 112,600 tonnes, down 144,300 tonnes or 56.17% year on year.

4.2 Domestic DAP Export Data

Customs data show that China exported 55,000 tonnes of DAP in June 2026, up 55,000 tonnes or 100.00% month on month, but down 451,300 tonnes or 89.14% year on year. The average export price was USD 746.00/tonne. Cumulative exports in January-December 2026 totaled 73,900 tonnes, down 525,100 tonnes or 87.66% year on year.

05 Domestic Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Fertilizers

5.1 Domestic MAP Apparent Consumption

China's apparent MAP consumption was 831,800 tonnes in June 2026, up 4,900 tonnes or 0.59% month on month and up 71,800 tonnes or 9.44% year on year. Cumulative apparent consumption in January-June totaled 5.5653 million tonnes, up 201,100 tonnes or 3.75% year on year.

5.2 Domestic DAP Apparent Consumption

China's apparent DAP consumption was 650,100 tonnes in June 2026, down 162,300 tonnes or 19.98% month on month but up 148,100 tonnes or 29.51% year on year. Cumulative apparent consumption in January-June totaled 5.5365 million tonnes, down 238,300 tonnes or 4.13% year on year.

06 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

6.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventories

At month-end, MAP inventories at China's major ports were 0 tonnes, unchanged from the previous month and down 50,000 tonnes or 100.00% year on year. Port inventories were unchanged during the month and remained below the same period last year.

6.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventories

At month-end, DAP inventories at China's major ports totaled 29,500 tonnes, effectively unchanged from the previous month and down 230,500 tonnes or 88.65% year on year. Inventories showed no obvious monthly change and remained below the same period last year.

07 Sulfur Market Price Analysis for the Month

7.1 Domestic Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook

In July, China's sulfur market first weakened and then strengthened while fluctuating at high levels. Domestic and international markets diverged: Chinese material was stable to firm, while imported material edged lower. Monthly volatility narrowed and no extreme one-way move occurred. The market centered on Middle East geopolitical disruptions, transmission from international prices, and the contest between off-season domestic demand and essential purchases, with pronounced regional divergence. At the beginning of the month, the market was stable to weak and trading was quiet. Domestic supply assurance for phosphate fertilizers continued, while downstream industries purchased only for rigid needs and showed little appetite for concentrated restocking. The market therefore consolidated within a narrow range. In mid-month, geopolitical support produced a temporary rebound. Disruptions to Middle East shipping lanes and stronger commodity sentiment lifted sulfur-market confidence and spot prices. However, geopolitical disturbances remained intermittent without a material escalation. Higher prices increased downstream pressure, acceptance of expensive material was limited, and actual demand follow-through was weak, preventing the rally from continuing. At month-end, the market returned to a high-level deadlock. International prices remained elevated and supported the domestic market, but off-season downstream demand continued to weaken and trading turned subdued. Liquid sulfur was more flexible and volatile because of market sentiment and purchasing schedules, while solid sulfur prices remained relatively firm. Regionally, Northeast China declined moderately in line with external markets. Northwest China recovered from low levels early in the month, rallied sharply on geopolitical support in mid-month, and edged lower as demand weakened later in the month, although strong bottom support limited the downside. Overall, imported sulfur prices edged lower during the month, while domestic solid and liquid sulfur prices increased month on month, highlighting divergence between domestic and overseas markets and among regions. Looking ahead, the sulfur market is expected to remain volatile within a high range. Strong cost support limits the risk of a deep decline, but limited incremental demand and pronounced downstream pressure constrain sustained gains. In the short term, prices will remain driven by news while supported by supply and demand, with particular attention to autumn fertilizer stockbuilding, international geopolitics, and overseas prices.

According to Feidoodoo data, on July 31, 2026, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,170.00, unchanged from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,150.00, unchanged; powder and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 9,120.00, unchanged; powder and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,100.00, unchanged; East China solid sulfur was 9,300.00, unchanged; and East China liquid sulfur was 9,170.00, down 0.54%.

08 Domestic Sulfur Industry Operating Conditions

8.1 Domestic Sulfur Operating Rate

The average monthly operating rate of China's sulfur industry was approximately 44.54%, up 1.02% month on month. The operating rate increased during the month as multiple producers restarted, slightly lifting domestic output and operating rates.

8.2 Domestic Sulfur Output

Domestic sulfur output totaled approximately 837,400 tonnes this month, up 21,700 tonnes or 2.66% from the previous month. Output increased as multiple producers restarted, slightly lifting domestic production and operating rates.

09 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Trends

At month-end, sulfur inventories at China's major ports totaled 877,200 tonnes, down 131,600 tonnes or 17.65% from the previous month and down 1.6614 million tonnes or 65.45% year on year. Major port inventories declined during the month and remained below the same period last year. Downstream factories were largely cautious and purchased limited volumes for essential needs. Transfers of their port resources back to plants were weaker than before, while port arrivals increased markedly month on month, leaving spot inventories higher overall.

10 Domestic Solid Sulfur Arrivals at Ports

According to Feidoodoo data, July solid sulfur arrivals at China's major ports were provisionally estimated at approximately 267,500 tonnes, including 70,000 tonnes at ports in the Yangtze River region.