Ammonium chloride prices continue to rise, spot supply continues to be tight
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
Jinlianchuang
3021
Guide
Highlights at a glance
The domestic ammonium chloride market is experiencing tight supply and rising prices, with spot availability scarce and order backlogs extending into mid-to-late April. High operating rates at combined alkali plants have not eased supply constraints, as most output is allocated to core customers amid significant shipment delays. Prices vary regionally, with dry and wet ammonium chloride in Jiangsu, Hubei, and Henan seeing steady increases, while some producers have stopped accepting new orders. Strong upstream urea prices, driven by supply disruptions and robust demand, are further boosting ammonium chloride’s price competitiveness. Positive market sentiment and overlapping factors—tight supply, rising demand, and high urea costs—are sustaining bullish momentum. However, rising input costs are pressuring compound fertilizer manufacturers, potentially limiting purchases from smaller players. The market is expected to remain firm in the short term, with limited downside risk.
Recently, the domestic ammonium chloride market has been supported by tight supply, and the offer has continued to rise, and the spot on the market is hard to find. Some factory orders are placed in the middle and late April, and the trend is gratifying.
The operating rate of the combined alkali plant is on the high side, and the spot stock is still tight. The supply of goods from each factory is mainly for core customers, and the factory has a large amount to be dispatched. At present, dry ammonium in Jiangsu is 1200-1300 yuan/ton, wet ammonium is 1100-1150 yuan/ton; Hubei dry ammonium is 1300 yuan/ton; there is no pressure on the terminal market in North China, and the transaction of dry ammonium in Henan is 1350-1450. Yuan/ton, wet ammonium is 1250-1300 Yuan/ton, some are sealed.
In terms of start-up, the operating rate of combined alkali enterprises is relatively high. Except for the uncertain time of resumption of production for some combined alkali enterprises, and the situation that a small number of installations will inevitably be shut down for maintenance due to long-term failures, most enterprises maintain normal production. At present, the advance orders received by ammonium chloride manufacturers are sufficient, and the order execution is relatively slow due to the tight supply. Some manufacturers restrict receiving orders, causing the terminal to have a stock-out mentality. Under the situation of insufficiency of supply, the procurement progress has been carried out step by step, which has raised the price level in the market to a certain extent.
In terms of market mentality, urea remained at a high level and prices rose across the board. The imbalance between supply and demand affected by the epidemic continued to intensify, the sudden equipment shutdown in Jincheng was greatly reduced, the supply of the epidemic caused market chain concerns, and the downstream rigid demand superimposed part of the demand ahead. Multi-factor resonance once again strongly pushed up the urea market. At present, the company's upward attitude is still relatively positive, and the price of urea continues to refresh the high point of the year, and the short-term market may continue to rise. Therefore, the price advantage of ammonium chloride is prominent. Under the circumstance that the local spot is tight, the trading continues to heat up, and the spot on the market is hard to find.
On the whole, ammonium chloride is superimposed by the favorable factors such as tight supply, increased demand and high urea price, and the transaction atmosphere is hot, so it is difficult to relieve the tense situation of spot goods for a while. The favorable market factors are still dominant, and manufacturers will not miss the opportunity to increase prices. However, this will also restrict the downstream compound fertilizer plants, and the cost of compound fertilizer plants will be under great pressure. If the price of ammonium chloride continues to rise, the purchase of some small and medium-sized enterprises may be restricted. It is expected that the short-term ammonium chloride market will continue to run at a high level, and the low-end may still make up for it.
The operating rate of the combined alkali plant is on the high side, and the spot stock is still tight. The supply of goods from each factory is mainly for core customers, and the factory has a large amount to be dispatched. At present, dry ammonium in Jiangsu is 1200-1300 yuan/ton, wet ammonium is 1100-1150 yuan/ton; Hubei dry ammonium is 1300 yuan/ton; there is no pressure on the terminal market in North China, and the transaction of dry ammonium in Henan is 1350-1450. Yuan/ton, wet ammonium is 1250-1300 Yuan/ton, some are sealed.
In terms of start-up, the operating rate of combined alkali enterprises is relatively high. Except for the uncertain time of resumption of production for some combined alkali enterprises, and the situation that a small number of installations will inevitably be shut down for maintenance due to long-term failures, most enterprises maintain normal production. At present, the advance orders received by ammonium chloride manufacturers are sufficient, and the order execution is relatively slow due to the tight supply. Some manufacturers restrict receiving orders, causing the terminal to have a stock-out mentality. Under the situation of insufficiency of supply, the procurement progress has been carried out step by step, which has raised the price level in the market to a certain extent.
In terms of market mentality, urea remained at a high level and prices rose across the board. The imbalance between supply and demand affected by the epidemic continued to intensify, the sudden equipment shutdown in Jincheng was greatly reduced, the supply of the epidemic caused market chain concerns, and the downstream rigid demand superimposed part of the demand ahead. Multi-factor resonance once again strongly pushed up the urea market. At present, the company's upward attitude is still relatively positive, and the price of urea continues to refresh the high point of the year, and the short-term market may continue to rise. Therefore, the price advantage of ammonium chloride is prominent. Under the circumstance that the local spot is tight, the trading continues to heat up, and the spot on the market is hard to find.
On the whole, ammonium chloride is superimposed by the favorable factors such as tight supply, increased demand and high urea price, and the transaction atmosphere is hot, so it is difficult to relieve the tense situation of spot goods for a while. The favorable market factors are still dominant, and manufacturers will not miss the opportunity to increase prices. However, this will also restrict the downstream compound fertilizer plants, and the cost of compound fertilizer plants will be under great pressure. If the price of ammonium chloride continues to rise, the purchase of some small and medium-sized enterprises may be restricted. It is expected that the short-term ammonium chloride market will continue to run at a high level, and the low-end may still make up for it.
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June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
