August 20 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: High Cost Support Fails to Reverse Weak Demand as the Phosphate Fertilizer Market Remains in a Stalemate and Wait-and-See Mode

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 20, the domestic 55% powder MAP price index was 4,392.50, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP price index was 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP price index was 4,693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic MAP market continued its weak consolidation trend today. On the producer side, most plants are still fulfilling earlier orders, while some traders are offering at slightly lower prices. Market prices are temporarily stable, and firm transactions are subject to negotiation. On the market side, the wait-and-see atmosphere has not improved materially. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers are experiencing slow sales and are maintaining only limited rigid-demand procurement. New-order transactions are limited and demand remains weak. On the raw material side, there were no sudden major conflicts in the US-Iran geopolitical situation today, with the overall situation remaining tense and deadlocked. The market remains alert to possible renewed friction between the two sides, while concerns over navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz have not fully subsided. Domestic sulfur prices continued to consolidate with divergent trends; port sulfur inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation; and the phosphate rock market remained under pressure. However, phosphate rock prices are still trading within a relatively high historical range, and cost support remains strong. Overall, the MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of autumn fertilizer procurement by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the pass-through impact of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 20, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP price index was 4,571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP price index was 4,700.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP price index was 4,410.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic DAP market consolidated steadily today. On the producer side, some producers are primarily shipping earlier contracted orders awaiting delivery. Producers show strong willingness to support prices, and firm transactions remain negotiable. On the market side, trading remains in a stalemate, with participants taking a wait-and-see approach. On the demand side, the autumn fertilizer season has started slowly and downstream demand support is weak. Most compound fertilizer plants are maintaining low operating rates, purchasing interest is generally limited, and wait-and-see sentiment is strong. Downstream inquiries are sporadic, while follow-up on firm orders remains limited. On the raw material side, there were no sudden major conflicts in the US-Iran geopolitical situation today, with the overall situation remaining tense and deadlocked. The market remains alert to possible renewed friction between the two sides, while concerns over navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz have not fully subsided. Domestic sulfur prices continued to consolidate with divergent trends; port sulfur inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation; and the phosphate rock market remained under pressure. However, phosphate rock prices are still trading within a relatively high historical range. Raw material prices on the cost side remain high, cost pressure has not eased materially, and costs continue to provide strong market support. Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain steady, narrow-range consolidation in the short term. Attention should focus on changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policy.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 20, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 8,750 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 8,730 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 8,700 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 8,680 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was priced at 9,100 yuan/tonne, unchanged; and liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 8,750 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

Regional sulfur market trends diverged today, while the contest between bullish and bearish factors intensified overall. The US-Iran geopolitical situation remains tense and deadlocked. Potential risks to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect overall commodity sentiment, indirectly influencing sulfur market expectations. The transaction benchmark for imported granular sulfur moved lower yesterday, and market prices adjusted accordingly. By region, the Shandong sulfur market continued to strengthen yesterday, with the benchmark in the independent refinery market continuing to rise. Refinery supply volumes fell markedly, overall supply and demand remained tight, downstream rigid demand continued to be strong, and active auction sentiment drove market prices higher. In Northwest China, auction supply remained stable yesterday, but transactions were weak, with some lots remaining unsold and transaction prices fluctuating widely. Liquid sulfur prices in Northeast China remained stable. The market expects sulfur prices to fluctuate lower overall during the day. On the port side, there were no effective quotations for imported sulfur in the domestic market this morning. Most interested buyers remained on the sidelines, and transactions were generally settled at discounts to prevailing average prices, resulting in subdued trading. Attention this afternoon will focus on transactions for liquid sulfur and port cargoes. On the downstream side, fertilizer producers are mainly purchasing according to demand. Rigid-demand support varies significantly by region, while willingness to place large orders is weak in some areas. Current fundamentals show divergent regional supply-demand conditions. The market is also moving in line with external macro sentiment and linkages among upstream and downstream raw materials. In the short term, the market may remain dominated by wait-and-see trading. Attention should remain on geopolitical developments, changes in downstream operating rates, and shipment trends in major producing regions, while monitoring price volatility risks.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 20: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,450-4,500 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,250-4,250 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Henan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,430-4,480 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder MAP were quoted at around 4,350-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,400-4,500 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around 4,250-4,300 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,700-4,750 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at 4,380-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 20: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup warehouse prices were quoted at 4,900-5,000 yuan/tonne, unchanged; 57% DAP self-pickup terminal prices were quoted at 4,400-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.