Daily Phosphate Fertilizer Review: Upstream Costs Remain Firm, Downstream Demand Continues to Be Weak

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on December 26th, the domestic price index for the 55% powder form of MAP was stable at 3379.38, the 55% granule index at 3400.00, and the 58% powder index at 3633.33.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic MAP market prices remained stable. From the factory perspective, the volume of orders awaiting dispatch continued to decrease, leading to unstable trader sentiments and the emergence of lower-end prices, resulting in market disarray, with actual transactions being negotiated. On the market side, new orders were sparse, showing poor transaction performance, and the trading atmosphere remained subdued. In terms of demand, downstream demand was weak, with a general atmosphere for goods movement in the market. The demand for industrial compound fertilizer purchases remained weak, with a recent downturn in operating rates, and a lack of market demand follow-up. Regarding raw materials, prices for synthetic ammonia and sulfur continued to rise modestly, and phosphate ore remained in tight supply with high prices, leading to slightly adjusted costs. Overall, the current MAP market maintains a weak operation, with limited new transactions, and market prices in disarray. The MAP market prices are expected to continue in a steady yet slightly adjusting trend in the short term.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on December 26th, the domestic mainstream 64% granule DAP index was stable at 3871.67, the 60% brown index at 3460.00, and the 57% content index at 3590.00.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic DAP market prices remain stable. Factories, with sufficient pre-received orders, mainly executed earlier orders and actively dispatched them. Though traders' dispatch prices loosened slightly, they were still higher than the factory’s prices. On the market side, the goods movement was average, with a trading atmosphere that continued to be subdued and an environment of firm and orderly transactions. In terms of supply, the DAP industry's operating rate continued to decline, resulting in slow market arrivals and tight supply. Demand-wise, downstream winter storage demand remained weak, with an average atmosphere for goods movement and persistent wait-and-see sentiments. In raw materials, prices for synthetic ammonia and sulfur continued to rise modestly, and phosphate ore prices remained firm, providing cost support. Overall, the current DAP market shows weak demand and an average atmosphere for goods movement, with market prices expected to remain steady with minor adjustments in the short term.