Daily Urea Review: International Prices Continue to Decline, Export Sentiment Remains Cautious

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, as of April 22, the small particle urea price index stood at 2256.64, a decrease of 6.82 from last Friday, down 0.30% week-over-week, and down 10.72% year-over-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the opening price for the UR409 urea contract was 2070, with a high of 2084, a low of 2031, a settlement price of 2056, and a closing price of 2045. The closing price decreased by 38 compared to the previous trading day, down 1.82%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2031-2084; the basis for the 09 contract in Shandong area is 175; the 09 contract saw an increase of 7195 positions today, bringing the total to 245,453 positions.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices slightly decreased, with no clear positive export news, leading to a stagnant market atmosphere and softening enterprise quotations.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2200-2260 yuan per ton. In East China, prices fell to 2210-2250 yuan per ton. In Central China, small particle prices fell to 2200-2350 yuan per ton, while large particle prices remained stable at 2230-2250 yuan per ton. In North China, prices fell to 2080-2250 yuan per ton. In South China, prices fell to 2320-2370 yuan per ton. In Northwest China, prices fell to 2200-2210 yuan per ton. In Southwest China, prices remained stable at 2200-2500 yuan per ton.

Factory Perspective:

Factories had a large volume of orders in the early stages, with current pending orders still satisfactory, fulfilling pre-received orders, and stabilizing shipments, with firm and steady quotations. On the market side, export news continued to develop, but with current international prices being low, the arbitrage space for domestic enterprises to export goods is limited, hence most enterprises have a low willingness to export and maintain a cautious sentiment, resulting in a stagnant market operation. On the supply side, daily production continues to decline, and as enterprises continue to de-stock, the current supply-side support remains positive. This week, Yan Mine Xinjiang and Yangmei Fengxi have maintenance plans, but some enterprises that had previously stopped production are also resuming this week, with an expectation of increased daily production. On the demand side, agricultural needs in the southern rice areas have started, with scattered stockpiling purchases; industrial compound fertilizer factories have significantly increased operations, with ongoing immediate replenishment needs, and industrial demand remains stable.

Overall,

The current urea market participants view export news with caution, maintaining a stable sentiment, with domestic demand following steadily. As international prices continue to decline, the urea market is expected to consolidate in the short term, with prices trending downward.