Daily Urea Review: Market Transactions Slow Down, Traders Take a Rational View

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on April 17th, the small granule urea price index stood at 2216.23, down by 7.86 from yesterday, a decrease of 0.35%, and a year-on-year drop of 13.79%.

Urea Futures Market:
Today, the urea UR409 contract opened in 2000, reached a high of 2028, a low of 1978, settled in 2004, and closed in 2024. The closing price was up by 45 compared to the previous trading day, an increase of 2.27%, with the daily range between 1978 and 2028. The Shandong area basis for the September contract was 156; today, the September contract saw an addition of 4350 positions, with current holdings at 263,146.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices slightly declined, with factories supported by pending orders, leading to generally stable quotes with minor changes in pricing.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region fell to 2190-2260 yuan/ton. In East China, prices dropped to 2150-2220 yuan/ton. In Central China, prices for small and medium granules rose to 2160-2300 yuan/ton, while large granules fell to 2160-2220 yuan/ton. Prices in North China dropped to 2020-2220 yuan/ton. In South China, prices fell to 2300-2320 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region fell to 2140-2150 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2100-2500 yuan/ton.

Factory Perspective:
Most factories had good order intake earlier, and currently, supported by pending orders, quotes are mostly stable with minor adjustments. Market-wise, transaction volumes have slowed compared to earlier periods. Although recent export policy news has been positive, the impact of falling international prices has led traders to take a more rational view of the market, causing sentiment to revert to a wait-and-see approach and short-term market consolidation is expected. On the supply side, daily industry production and inventory continue to decrease, with upcoming maintenance plans at Yankuang Xinjiang, Offshore Petroleum Fudi, and Zhongyan Anhui Red Square expected to further reduce daily production. On the demand side, downstream purchasing has slowed due to the continuous rise in market quotes over the past few days, reducing market transactions, with a cautious follow-up attitude prevailing and essential needs driving purchases.

Overall View:
Despite positive news about export policies and a decrease in supply, the market is stuck due to falling international prices and a slowdown in domestic downstream follow-up. It is expected that urea prices will undergo minor fluctuations and consolidate within a narrow range in the short term.