Daily Urea Review: Support from Pending Shipments Slows High-Priced Purchases, Market Stuck in a Stalemate

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Fertiduoduo data, on April 23, the small particle urea price index was 2239.68, a decrease of 16.95 from yesterday, down 0.75% day-over-day, and down 10.94% year-over-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's urea UR409 contract opened at 2035, with a high of 2035 and a low of 2000, settling at 2014, and closing at 2015, a decrease of 41 from the previous trading day's settle price, down 1.99%, with a daily range of 2000-2035. The basis in the Shandong region for the September contract was 195; today, the September contract decreased by 573 positions, with current holdings at 244,880 positions.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market prices continued to adjust downward, with ongoing shipments and low willingness to change prices, resulting in mostly stable quotes with minor adjustments downward.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region fell to 2190-2240 yuan/ton. In the East China region, prices fell to 2200-2230 yuan/ton. In the Central China region, prices for small particles fell to 2190-2300 yuan/ton, while prices for large particles remained stable at 2230-2250 yuan/ton. In the North China region, prices fell to 2080-2230 yuan/ton. In the South China, prices fell to 2300-2330 yuan/ton. In the Northwest region, prices fell to 2190-2210 yuan/ton. In the Southwest region, prices fell to 2180-2550 yuan/ton.

Factory Aspect:

Manufacturers mostly execute previously received pre-orders, with pending shipments providing support, and keeping current quotes stable. After an overall increase in early-period corporate quotes, current quotes from various companies remain high, with some pre-orders leading to slight decreases in factory prices. On the market side, the trading atmosphere has changed from the previous period, with news on export policy having a reduced impact on market price trends, cautious business sentiment, and a market reluctance at high prices continuing to inhibit follow-ups, leading to a general decrease in the trading atmosphere. On the supply side, the number of industry shutdowns for maintenance increased this week, with daily production dropping below 180,000 tons for the first time recently. On the demand side, market sentiment affects downstream purchasing attitudes, with downstream continuing to slow its follow-up pace. Agricultural rice-farming regions are beginning to fertilize, appropriately following up with restocking; the compound fertilizer market on the industrial side is seeing improved transactions, with factories maintaining operations and continuing to follow up on raw material purchases.

Overall:

Currently, the urea market is operating in a stalemate, with support from pending shipments keeping quotes high despite evident fear of high prices downstream, and a cautious mentality in the marketplace. The urea market is expected to consolidate steadily in the short term, with prices gradually decreasing.