Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to data from Feidoodoo, on October 26th, the price index for small granular urea was 2503.00, down 10.45 from the previous day, a decrease of 0.42% compared to the previous day, and a decrease of 0.42% compared to the same period last year.

Urea Futures Market:

The opening price of the UR2401 urea contract today was 2212, with a highest price of 2228, a lowest price of 2190, a settlement price of 2210, and a closing price of 2215. The closing price was down 4 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, a decrease of 0.18%. The price range throughout the day was 2190-2228, with a price difference of 38. The UR2401 contract saw an increase of 575 positions today, with a current open interest of 328,580 positions.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market continued its downward trend in prices. Many manufacturers adjusted their prices based on their own situations. There are ongoing rumors about exports in the market, and downstream players are cautious in their responses.

Specifically, in the Northeast region, prices remained stable at 2460-2550 yuan per ton. In North China, prices fell to 2320-2520 yuan per ton. In Northwest China, prices remained stable at 2500-2510 yuan per ton. In Southwest China, prices remained stable at 2420-2800 yuan per ton. In East China, prices decreased to 2400-2480 yuan per ton. In Central China, prices for small granules decreased to 2420-2640 yuan per ton, while prices for large granules remained stable at 2530-2640 yuan per ton. In South China, prices fell to 2580-2600 yuan per ton.

Future Market Predictions:

In terms of supply, the current supply remains sufficient, with factory facilities gradually recovering. It is expected that Kuitun will resume production in the near future, and production capacity utilization will remain high. On the factory side, although there was support from previous expectations, the market sentiment is weak, and new orders are hindered by the impact of low-price selling by traders. Currently, many factories are lowering prices based on their own situations. In terms of demand, there is a willingness to stockpile in the current market, and downstream players are cautious and waiting for suitable prices before entering the market for stockpiling. Additionally, due to the decline in the real estate sector, the demand for urea in downstream melamine, including automotive urea related to construction, has also decreased. Export-wise, recent reports suggest export restrictions, and China is currently in the winter storage period, with the possibility of export policies tightening again. There is also a risk of urea stocks that were previously stored in ports returning to the mainland.

In summary, the positive export news for the urea market is gradually weakening. Factories are maintaining their prices with the support of expected shipments, but it is expected that the urea market will continue to be weak in the short term."