Nitrogen Is Abnormal, And Compound Fertilizer Is More Troublesome.

January 11, 2023

nitrogenous fertilizer,compound fertilizer

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Guide

Highlights at a glance

As the spring plowing and Spring Festival travel rush approach, the fertilizer market remains uncertain. While nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer prices have surprisingly stayed firm—urea near 2,700 yuan/ton and ammonium chloride at 1,250–1,350 yuan/ton—due to sustained orders and tight logistics, the potash market has remained calm, reflecting underlying confidence despite weak demand. However, with synthetic ammonia and sulfur prices declining, market sentiment for urea and monoammonium phosphate turns bearish, expecting downward fluctuations. Potassium sulfate’s price strength is also seen as temporary, weakening cost support for compound fertilizers. Compound fertilizer producers are focused on clearing inventory ahead of the holiday, with generally pessimistic outlooks, though some are securing low-priced orders for post-holiday operations. Dealers remain cautious, many delaying purchases until after the year-end. Overall, market sentiment is mixed and speculative, driven by short

In January, spring ploughing and Spring Festival travel rush are approaching, but the trend of fertilizer market is still confusing. Most of the views in the industry are as follows: the voice of bearish outlook is changing; The mentality of rising and falling fear is confusing.

In the past month, the manufacturers of compound fertilizer raw materials, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, mainly shipped the low-priced orders in the early stage. Under the just-needed support, urea and monoammonium are mainly purchased back-to-back on demand. During this period in previous years, urea and ammonium chloride fell more and more, and their prices went down to the bottom, but this year, it was uncharacteristic. Orders kept on, transportation was tight, warehouse replenishment or port collection was booming, and prices were firm. Urea rebounded to nearly 2,700 yuan/ton, and ammonium chloride was at 1,250 ~ 1,350 yuan/ton, still at a high level.

Compared with the noisy market of nitrogen and phosphorus, the potash fertilizer market has been calm in the past month. Behind this, there is quite a bit of self-confidence of "riding the Diaoyutai despite the wind and waves". When property hoarding is weak, it is waiting for the price when it is prosperous, and the operation can be described as handy.

However, with the downward trend of synthetic ammonia, sulfur and other fertilizer raw materials, the market generally believes that the market outlook of urea and monoammonium is negative, and both of them are expected to fluctuate downward. Although the change of potassium fertilizer is not big, the highlight time of potassium sulfate will not last long, and the return to rational price is not far away. Therefore, the support of potash fertilizer on the cost of compound fertilizer is greatly weakened.

With the coming of the Spring Festival, compound fertilizer enterprises are working hard to complete the processing and production of previous orders and empty the existing inventory. Of course, it is not excluded that individual factories will introduce phased preferential policies. The real mentality of compound fertilizer manufacturers is bearish. However, driven by the mentality of gambling, some enterprises suck orders at low prices, so as to ensure the normal start-up after the holiday. As for dealers, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and some of them have plans to postpone the operation until the end of the year.

At present, the market mentality is generally confused, and it is difficult to judge the volatile market after the year. Nowadays, in addition to paying attention to the fertilizer market in real time, we should also study the causal relationship between domestic fertilizer supply chain and industrial chain, the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the global economic stagflation and the import and export situation of fertilizers in various countries.

Analysis Of Compound Fertilizer Operating Rate

Before The Holiday, The Potassium Chloride Market Went This Way.