October 28 Phosphate Daily: Weakness Continues, Market Waits on the Sidelines

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on October 28 the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,667.50, down 23.75 versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 3,925.00, down 75.00 versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 3,866.67, down 333.33 versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic MAP market continued to weaken. On the enterprise side, most plants are still executing earlier orders, concluded business is thin, and both producers and mid-stream traders have cut their quotations. On the market side, supply has declined somewhat, but follow-through in new orders is ordinary and the trading atmosphere is deadlocked and thin. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its final stage, market inventories are ample, low-end material is still appearing, and purchases by some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises remain focused on rigid-demand replenishment; they are in no hurry to place new orders, sentiment is fairly cautious, and demand remains rather weak. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to weaken today; sulfuric acid prices were steady for the time being; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; and continued declines in feedstock costs are weakening support for enterprises. Overall, the MAP market currently remains in a pattern of marginally weakening cost support and sluggish demand recovery; short-term market talk that binary fertilizer exports may be liberalized is providing some sentiment support to prices for now, but the real-world picture is expected to remain weak. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw-material price trends, the pace of downstream stocking demand, and the sentiment transmission from export policy and geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on October 28 the domestic DAP mainstream 64% granular index was 4,770.00, flat versus the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 3,912.50, flat versus the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to run weak and steady. On the enterprise side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously committed orders, market prices lack a driver for now, and actual transactions remain subject to negotiation. On the market side, although news that binary fertilizer exports may be liberalized briefly disturbed sentiment, the overall bearish mood has not yet fully eased. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its closing stage, low prices are frequent in the market, the trading atmosphere is deadlocked and thin, downstream purchases are mostly concentrated in small rigid-demand lots, some traders are under sentiment pressure, and overall quotations are mainly weak and steady. On the raw-material side, the domestic sulfur market continued to weaken today; sulfuric acid prices were stable to range-bound; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; and feedstock prices overall are weakening their support for enterprises. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak and steady pattern in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw-material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data estimates, on October 28 the domestic sulfur granular price at Zhenjiang Port was 4,800 yuan/t, down 100 yuan/t versus the previous working day; the granular price at Dafeng Port was 4,780 yuan/t, down 100 yuan/t versus the previous working day; the lump/powder price at Zhenjiang Port was 4,750 yuan/t, down 100 yuan/t versus the previous working day; the lump/powder price at Dafeng Port was 4,730 yuan/t, down 100 yuan/t versus the previous working day; the East China solid price was 5,600 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; and the East China liquid price was 5,425 yuan/t, up 70 yuan/t versus the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic sulfur market as a whole continued to run weak. At the ports, the granular sulfur spot market at Yangtze River ports continued to weaken and moved lower; the trading atmosphere remained thin, procurement willingness on the demand side is still unclear, buyers are clearly waiting on the sidelines and mainly pressing prices in inquiries, and some holders have become more willing to sell and have cut their quotations. Transaction prices in the Shandong liquid sulfur market were relatively steady, with limited price fluctuation, and the market was mainly cautious rigid-demand business. Earlier refinery inventory pressure was light; combined with low operating rates and limited volumes released through auctions, downstream rigid-demand procurement has kept following through, overall keeping market prices relatively firm. However, after the recent rapid run-up, demand-side willingness to keep chasing higher prices has declined, the trading atmosphere has weakened somewhat, wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and failed auctions have become frequent. Overall, a cautious mindset persists across the market, and after rigid demand was appropriately released the market is for now watching whether this can be sustained. For the moment the market still cannot form an overly optimistic expectation on the scale and sustainability of demand. The market is mainly watching whether, as its own prices keep falling, a recovery in downstream and terminal demand can lift buying sentiment at the ports.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Phosphate Market News Roundup:

October 28: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with the quotation cut.

October 28: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,800-3,850 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 28: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 28: In the Hubei MAP market, the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powder was around 3,550-3,650 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 28: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with the quotation cut.

October 28: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with the quotation cut.

October 28: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,650 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 28: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-factory was quoted at around 3,400-3,500 yuan/t, with the quotation cut.

October 28: In the Shaanxi DAP market, 60% ex-works with self-pickup was quoted at 4,100-4,150 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 28: In the Northeast DAP market, 64% ex-works with self-pickup was quoted at 5,000-5,050 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 28: In the Hebei DAP market, 57% with self-pickup was quoted at 3,800-4,000 yuan/t, unchanged.

October 28: In the Hubei DAP market, 64% ex-works with self-pickup was quoted at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 28: In the Shandong DAP market, 64% ex-warehouse was quoted at 4,550-4,900 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged; 57% self-pickup at the depot was quoted at 3,850-3,950 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.