Pesticide Daily Review, July 6: Expectation Pressure Remains

The pesticide market remained broadly weak in sentiment, with downstream buyers mainly following up based on rigid demand. Market drivers were insufficient, and the cost-upside logic driven by geopolitical tensions slowed as geopolitical risks cooled. Some products still had support from phased supply-demand mismatches, but due to transmission issues along the industrial chain, downstream negative feedback caused by high prices continued to emerge. The market is temporarily waiting to see whether terminal demand can provide further absorption.

International trade flows toward China again came under expectation pressure from the U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duty policy outlook on Chinese glyphosate, creating some sentiment pressure on the domestic market. However, the actual investigation still requires continued tracking, and for now the impact is limited to restraining exports to the United States, while other trade flows will still depend on external demand strength.

In addition, the Middle East geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing. The United States and Iran have preliminarily signed a memorandum of understanding, leading to a sharp pullback in the geopolitical risk premium. However, the market is still watching for substantive restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while supply damage in the petrochemical industrial chain remains irreversible in the short term. Cost-side drivers may slow, but bottom support may still exist.

Overall, market caution persists. Price increases in some upstream products continue to face resistance in downstream transmission, upward momentum has paused, and the wait-and-see atmosphere remains evident. Going forward, attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment changes, export strength, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides

The herbicide market atmosphere continued to weaken. Earlier inventory accumulation among traders led to some low-price selling. Although cost pressure caused by geopolitical risks still exists, expectations have eased after the general direction of peace became tentatively established, and insufficient demand absorption has failed to provide new drivers.

Meanwhile, the U.S. invocation of the Defense Production Act to list elemental phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides as critical defense materials, requiring priority protection of domestic supply, continues to provide some support to the domestic market. However, news that Monsanto requested the United States to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese glyphosate has weighed on domestic market sentiment.

Overall, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing based on rigid demand. After short-term seasonal demand support weakened, market sentiment continued to soften. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether export conditions can improve and to changes in geopolitical sentiment.

Yellow Phosphorus

Recently, the yellow phosphorus market atmosphere has remained generally weak. After a relatively sharp price decline in the recent period, some acceptance willingness has shown signs of stabilizing, but the strength of buying interest remains limited. Downstream price-pressuring sentiment still exists, actual transaction volume remains limited, and the market is cautious and watchful. After market transactions weakened, the price center moved slightly lower again.

In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see stance. Overall sentiment in the yellow phosphorus market remains under pressure and may continue to be cautious, while bearish views may be difficult to fully reverse. In the near term, attention should be paid to the sustainability and strength of low-price acceptance.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides

98% 2,4-D fell by RMB 500 to RMB 16,000/tonne;

96% fomesafen fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 108,000/tonne.

Insecticides

97% pymetrozine fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 102,000/tonne;

95% abamectin technical powder fell by RMB 10,000 to RMB 390,000/tonne;

70% emamectin benzoate fell by RMB 10,000 to RMB 570,000/tonne;

98% monosultap fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 82,000/tonne;

95% bisultap fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 24,000/tonne;

90% bisultap fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 22,000/tonne;

96% chlorantraniliprole fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 215,000/tonne.

Fungicides

96% hexaconazole fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 88,000/tonne;

95% epoxiconazole fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 240,000/tonne.