Pesticide Daily Review, June 17: Market Sentiment Continues to Weaken

The pesticide market remained generally weak in sentiment, with prices fluctuating and diverging across products. Transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand, while the cost-upside logic may slow as geopolitical tensions ease.

Some products still received support from short-term supply-demand mismatches. However, due to transmission issues across the industrial chain, high prices continued to trigger negative feedback from downstream buyers. The market is currently waiting to see whether end-user demand can provide further support.

In the international market, expectations remain for stronger trade flows toward China. However, the actual strength of overseas demand will depend more on seasonal demand patterns in destination markets and the stocking willingness of international traders. Overall, this still provides medium- to long-term support for market sentiment.

In the short term, tensions in the Middle East have shown signs of easing, as the United States and Iran have reportedly reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding. The geopolitical risk premium has fallen sharply. However, the market is still watching whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can be substantially restored. Meanwhile, supply disruptions in the petrochemical value chain remain difficult to reverse in the short term. Cost-driven momentum may slow, but bottom support is likely to remain.

Overall, market participants remain cautious. Price increases in some upstream products are still facing resistance in downstream transmission, upward momentum has slowed, and the wait-and-see atmosphere remains evident. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical sentiment, export strength, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides

The herbicide market atmosphere continued to weaken. Earlier inventory accumulation among traders has led to some low-price selling. Although cost increases caused by geopolitical risks remain present, expectations have eased after signs of a tentative peace outlook. At the same time, insufficient downstream demand has made it difficult to generate new market momentum.

In the United States, elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides have been listed as critical defense materials under the Defense Production Act, requiring priority protection of domestic supply. This move continues to provide some support to the Chinese domestic market.

Overall, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing based on rigid demand. As seasonal demand support weakens in the short term, market sentiment continues to soften. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether export conditions improve and how geopolitical sentiment evolves.

Yellow Phosphorus

The yellow phosphorus market remained in a high-level tug-of-war, while trading sentiment weakened somewhat. At present, upstream factory inventory pressure is limited, and upstream producers still show some willingness to hold prices firm.

However, downstream products remain limited in their ability to follow price increases, and the transmission of cost pressure remains constrained. In addition, as Middle East geopolitical tensions ease, the decline in sulfur prices has weakened the substitution premium of thermal-process phosphoric acid to some extent. The market is currently cautious and wait-and-see. Some midstream participants have started to loosen prices, and after trading sentiment weakened, the market has entered another correction phase.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides

• 95% Glyphosate fell by RMB 1,000 to RMB 29,000/mt.
• 98% 2,4-D fell by RMB 1,000 to RMB 17,000/mt.
• 40% Diquat mother liquor fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 18,000/mt.
• 95% Pretilachlor fell by RMB 1,000 to RMB 31,000/mt.
• 97% Haloxyfop-P-methyl fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 123,000/mt.

Insecticides

• 97% Imidacloprid fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 73,000/mt.
• 97% Chlorfenapyr fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 120,000/mt.
• 96% Pyridaben fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 120,000/mt.
• 98% Monosultap fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 85,000/mt.
• 95% Indoxacarb (9:1) fell by RMB 20,000 to RMB 480,000/mt.
• 99% Metaldehyde fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 35,000/mt.
• 96% Chlorantraniliprole fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 225,000/mt.

Fungicides

• 96% Difenoconazole fell by RMB 2,000 to RMB 80,000/mt.
• 95% Cyproconazole fell by RMB 4,000 to RMB 158,000/mt.
• 96% Hexaconazole fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 90,000/mt.
• 98% Azoxystrobin fell by RMB 4,000 to RMB 130,000/mt.
• 97% Pyraclostrobin fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 130,000/mt.
• 96% Thifluzamide fell by RMB 10,000 to RMB 240,000/mt.
• 97% Hymexazol fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 80,000/mt.
• 97% Trifloxystrobin fell by RMB 10,000 to RMB 175,000/mt.