Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 1: Stable Follow-Through, Transitional Demand Still Pending

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 1, the domestic 55% powder monoammonium phosphate (MAP) index stood at 4,435.00, flat from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained stable today.

On the supply side, most producers were still executing earlier orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained elevated, traders maintained firm sentiment, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

In the market, sellers remained firm but constrained, buyers were cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period before autumn fertilizer preparation begins on a large scale, and end-user fertilizer demand remained limited. Downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to operate at low rates. Some producers had already completed partial raw material restocking earlier and showed limited willingness to purchase at high prices, while actual procurement remained mainly small-volume and need-based.

On the raw material side, sulfur prices edged lower from elevated levels today, while port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels. Cost support remained relatively strong, and producers showed a firm willingness to hold prices.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain firm in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the start of autumn fertilizer preparation by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the transmission effect of sulfur market movements on costs after the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 1, the domestic mainstream 64% granular diammonium phosphate (DAP) index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,425.00, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to hold firm today.

On the supply side, some producers mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders, while others gradually issued new prices. Price-support sentiment remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

In the market, the wait-and-see atmosphere continued.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a large scale. Most downstream compound fertilizer plants maintained low operating rates, with procurement limited to small volumes for daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly small and scattered, leaving overall trading activity deadlocked and subdued.

On the raw material side, sulfur prices edged lower from elevated levels today, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels. Cost pressure remained high, and producers still faced substantial cost support, which continued to underpin the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue operating at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on July 1, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,000.00/tonne, down 2.17% from the previous working day. The granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 8,950.00/tonne, down 2.19% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 8,980.00/tonne, down 2.18% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 8,930.00/tonne, down 2.19% from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 9,250.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day, while liquid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,987.5/tonne, flat from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic sulfur market continued to show regional divergence and overall high-level volatility today. Geopolitical supply disruptions continued to provide underlying support to prices, while supply-demand conditions and trading activity varied across sub-markets.

At ports, the sulfur market remained relatively weak. Holders kept asking prices high, but end-user inquiries were limited and tentative, and trading interactions in the market remained quiet. Market participants remained cautious, with some lowering offers to move cargo. There were only sporadic inquiries, and some transactions were reached among traders, with market activity largely following prevailing prices.

In domestic production areas, performance diverged. Shandong liquid sulfur continued its strong upward trend, with local refinery auctions clearing at premiums throughout the session. As downstream plants gradually resumed operations, rigid demand increased, and purchasing enthusiasm improved, driving liquid sulfur prices higher. At the same time, local inventories remained at low levels, shipment pace was stable, and there was no inventory pressure, allowing both supply and demand to support further gains in liquid sulfur prices.

Demand-side support remained clear. Some downstream producers are gradually restarting production, and with more restarts expected later, market demand has room to increase steadily. Downstream willingness to stock up improved, further boosting spot trading activity. On the supply side, the market remained tight overall. Overseas geopolitical uncertainty has not yet been resolved, import replenishment remains constrained, and inventories at ports and producing regions are not expected to recover materially. Holders remain confident in holding prices firm, while low-price selling willingness remains weak.

Looking ahead, the sulfur market is expected to maintain a high-level volatile pattern in the short term. The market currently lacks major bearish news, and fundamental support from tight supply and improving downstream demand remains intact, leaving room for prices to move higher across regions. However, wait-and-see sentiment is still present. Without concentrated large-volume procurement or a major increase in vessel arrivals, the market is unlikely to see a sharp one-sided move. The short-term pattern is expected to remain a high-level range consolidation. Going forward, attention should remain on liquid sulfur transactions, port cargo trading dynamics, and changes in overseas shipping and geopolitical news to gauge further price potential.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 1: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 1: In the Northeast China MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 1: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 1: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

July 1: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 1: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 1: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 1: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

July 1: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

July 1: In Northeast China, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

July 1: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.

July 1: In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

July 1: In Shandong, 64% DAP ex-warehouse self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with offers stable. 57% DAP self-pickup prices at railway platforms were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.