Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 16: Raw Material Costs Still Provide Support, Demand Remains Weak and Consolidative

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 16, the domestic monoammonium phosphate 55% powder index stood at 4,423.75, down 0.25% from the previous working day; the 55% granular index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained stable.

On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing previous orders. Domestic sulfur prices remained firm at high levels, raw material prices stayed elevated, traders maintained a firm attitude, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, current sentiment is characterized by sellers remaining firm but constrained, buyers staying cautious and watchful, and traders holding goods while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer end-user demand is starting slowly. Some enterprises have already completed part of their raw material procurement, and willingness to purchase at high prices remains weak. Due to weather factors, operating rates are low, and actual procurement continues to rely mainly on small-volume need-based purchases, with relatively cautious sentiment.

On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to expand. Both sides have stated that they are resuming wartime posture, and both again claimed mutual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. This has provided cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices moved higher at elevated levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. Cost-side pressure remains strong.

Overall, supported by costs and pending orders, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the impact of geopolitical developments on cost transmission.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 16, the domestic mainstream diammonium phosphate 64% granular index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% content index stood at 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to operate in a stalemate and consolidation pattern.

On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices continued to rise, market sentiment toward holding prices firm remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remained strong.

On the demand side, performance remained persistently sluggish. Demand is still in the traditional fertilizer-use gap period, and domestic autumn sowing preparation has not yet started on a concentrated basis. Downstream compound fertilizer plants are mostly operating at low rates, with procurement limited to small-volume daily rigid-demand replenishment. Grassroots distributors remain strongly wait-and-see, and overall trading activity is stagnant and relatively light.

On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to expand. Both sides have stated that they are resuming wartime posture, and both again claimed mutual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. This has provided cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices moved higher at elevated levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. High raw material prices continue to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the diammonium phosphate market is expected to continue high-level consolidation in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on July 16, the domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur price stood at 9,180.00, down 0.22% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur stood at 9,160.00, down 0.22%; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur stood at 9,130.00, down 0.22%; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur stood at 9,110.00, down 0.22%; East China solid sulfur stood at 9,030.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur stood at 9,080.00, up 0.33% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic sulfur market continued to operate at high levels with volatile regional divergence. The lingering geopolitical backdrop continued to underpin the market, and the supply-tight logic brought by earlier restrictions on Middle Eastern shipping still retained a premium support effect. Although international shipping has been gradually recovering recently and imported cargo arrivals have increased somewhat, overall spot availability remains tight, and low port inventories continue to provide support.

Domestic liquid sulfur outperformed granular sulfur. Refinery bidding activity in major producing regions remained strong, market trading sentiment continued to heat up, and cargoes were mostly traded at premiums. Sellers maintained a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Regional trends diverged clearly. Liquid sulfur prices in Shandong and Northwest China continued to rise, with strong demand absorption. Northeast China remained relatively stable, with limited volatility. The imported granular sulfur market was relatively steady, with smooth fluctuations and no new strong stimulus. Market participants mostly remained cautious and wait-and-see.

Trading showed a pattern of “stable prices but light volume,” with downstream buyers mostly holding back and showing weak willingness to purchase proactively. Domestic solid sulfur also followed higher, and procurement enthusiasm for Northwest domestic cargoes continued to rise, with prices maintaining an upward trend. This became the main support point for the domestic solid sulfur market.

In the short term, supported by geopolitical risk premium and downstream rigid demand, the domestic sulfur market is expected to remain firm at high levels. Prices across regions are likely to stay relatively strong, with no obvious expectation of a pullback for now. Continued escalation of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict remains the core factor dominating the market. Strait shipping risks and uncertainty over overseas cargo arrivals will continue to affect market sentiment. Holders have a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and bottom support for spot prices remains solid.

Overall, the short-term market’s firm pattern has been established, and prices are likely to maintain high-level volatile upward movement. Going forward, caution is needed regarding the risk of a market correction if geopolitical tensions ease or demand follow-up weakens.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 16: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 16: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 16: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,480-4,530/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 16: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 16: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 16: In the Shandong MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,500-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 16: In the Sichuan MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 16: In the Yunnan MAP market, ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 16: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 16: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 16: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 16: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 16: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% self-pickup station quotations were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.