Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 2: High Cost Support Keeps Market Stable

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 2, the domestic 55% powder monoammonium phosphate (MAP) index stood at 4,435.00, flat from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to operate steadily today.

On the supply side, most producers were still executing earlier orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained elevated, traders maintained firm sentiment, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

In the market, sellers remained firm but constrained, buyers were cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between the end of summer fertilizer demand and the start of autumn fertilizer preparation. End-user fertilizer demand remained weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to operate at low rates. Some producers had already completed partial raw material restocking earlier and showed limited willingness to purchase at high prices, while actual procurement remained mainly small-volume and need-based.

On the raw material side, sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels with a slightly firm tone today, while trends diverged across regions and port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed a firm willingness to hold prices.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain stable at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the start of autumn fertilizer preparation by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the transmission effect of sulfur market movements on costs after the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 2, the domestic mainstream 64% granular diammonium phosphate (DAP) index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,500.91, up 0.17% from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to operate at high levels today.

On the supply side, some producers mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders, with no significant changes in prices. Price-support sentiment remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

In the market, the wait-and-see atmosphere continued.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a large scale. Most downstream compound fertilizer plants maintained low operating rates, with procurement limited to small volumes for daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly small and scattered, leaving overall trading activity deadlocked and subdued.

On the raw material side, sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels with a slightly firm tone today, while trends diverged across regions and port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels. Phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels, and high raw material costs continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on July 2, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 8,900.00/tonne, down 1.11% from the previous working day. The granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 8,880.00/tonne, down 1.11% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 8,850.00/tonne, down 1.23% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 8,830.00/tonne, down 1.23% from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 9,250.00/tonne, up 0.27% from the previous working day, while liquid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 9,045/tonne, up 0.39% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Market divergence continued today. At ports, granular sulfur quotations in the morning were flat from yesterday, spot transactions remained light, and trading was mainly supported by long-term contracts. In Northwest China, morning transaction volume was limited, auctions were conducted in an orderly manner, and low inventories provided bottom support for prices. Intraday market direction depended mainly on afternoon liquid sulfur and port transaction performance.

Shandong liquid sulfur became the key bullish driver for the overall market. Auction activity was strong, downstream plant restarts in the region brought incremental demand, and expectations of tighter liquid sulfur output increased as several refineries approached maintenance. Local supply and demand tightened, and price-pushing sentiment strengthened, lifting overall market sentiment.

Overall, the market showed a structurally tight balance. Expected refinery maintenance in China is reducing liquid sulfur supply, while steady port arrivals and low inventories are building a price floor. However, high prices are suppressing downstream stocking willingness in most regions. Only Shandong saw concentrated release of rigid demand, while other regions mainly purchased on demand. Traders in the circulation segment remained cautious, and spot liquidity was relatively weak.

In the short term, sulfur is expected to maintain a high-level volatile pattern with regional divergence. The tight supply-demand logic for Shandong liquid sulfur remains unchanged for now, making prices more likely to rise than fall. Upside room for port granular sulfur is limited, but low inventories reduce the risk of a sharp decline. Northwest and Northeast China are expected to consolidate within a range in line with the main market.

In the medium to long term, two key factors will drive the market. First, incremental arrivals of imported cargoes: concentrated vessel arrivals would ease supply tightness and limit price gains. Second, the overall operating levels of downstream chemical and phosphate fertilizer industries: continued weak end-user demand would weaken support for high prices. Overall, the broad tight-supply backdrop has not reversed, and the price center is expected to remain high. Short-term fluctuations will mainly be driven by regional supply-demand conditions and intraday auction results, with the risk of wide high-level volatility still present.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 2: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 2: In the Northeast China MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 2: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 2: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

July 2: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 2: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 2: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

July 2: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

July 2: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

July 2: In Northeast China, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

July 2: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with offers raised.

July 2: In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

July 2: In Shandong, 64% DAP ex-warehouse self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with offers stable. 57% DAP self-pickup prices at railway platforms were quoted at RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with offers raised.