Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 20: High Raw Material Prices Provide Strong Support, Phosphate Fertilizer Market Remains Stable

MAP Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on July 20, China’s domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4,423.75, flat from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic MAP market continued to operate steadily.

On the enterprise side, most plants are still executing previous orders. Raw material prices remain elevated, traders continue to hold firm sentiment, and actual transactions are negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, current sentiment is characterized by sellers holding firm but under pressure, buyers remaining cautious and wait-and-see, and traders reluctant to sell while waiting for prices to rise.

On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have already completed partial raw material stocking. Willingness to purchase at high prices is weak, and actual procurement is mainly limited to small volumes for need-based demand, with sentiment remaining cautious.

On the raw material side, the U.S. and Iran have continued to launch military strikes against each other. The intensity of the conflict has increased, risks to navigation through the strait have intensified, and both sides have sent strong confrontation signals, although some room for strategic maneuvering remains. The risk of disruption to regional energy supply continues to rise. Domestic sulfur prices are fluctuating with a firm bias, with divergent trends, while port inventories continue to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices are fluctuating at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remain high and stable, keeping cost-side pressure strong.

Overall, supported by high raw material costs, the MAP market is expected to continue high-level consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stocking, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on July 20, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic DAP market continued to operate in narrow-range consolidation.

On the enterprise side, some producers are mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Market prices have not changed significantly, raw material prices continue to rise, price-support sentiment remains strong, and actual transactions are still negotiated.

On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remains strong.

On the demand side, there are still no signs of recovery. Downstream procurement remains sluggish, and demand is in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn planting fertilizer stocking has not yet started on a concentrated basis. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintain low operating rates, procurement is limited to small-volume replenishment for routine rigid demand, grassroots distributors remain highly cautious, and overall trading activity remains weak and stagnant.

On the raw material side, the U.S. and Iran have continued to launch military strikes against each other. The intensity of the conflict has increased, risks to navigation through the strait have intensified, and both sides have sent strong confrontation signals, although some room for strategic maneuvering remains. The risk of disruption to regional energy supply continues to rise. Domestic sulfur prices are fluctuating with a firm bias and divergent trends, while port inventories continue to run at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices are fluctuating at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remain high and stable. Raw material costs remain elevated, cost pressure continues to intensify, and this provides strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain weak but stable in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data calculations, on July 20, domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,160.00, down 0.22% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,140.00, down 0.22% from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,110.00, down 0.22% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,090.00, down 0.22% from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was priced at 9,030.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was priced at 9,145.00, up 0.16% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic sulfur market showed a pattern of high-level pullback and weak consolidation. The tug of war between bullish and bearish factors intensified, overall trading was quiet, and market participants held a strong wait-and-see attitude.

On the supply side, affected by overseas shipping route developments, disruptions remain in international circulation. Periodic gaps in arrivals of imported cargoes continue, and the overall tight supply pattern persists, providing bottom support for market prices. The domestic solid sulfur market remains relatively stable. Auction performance in Northwest China was steady, and prices overall stayed at high levels. Shandong’s liquid sulfur market remains strong, but upward momentum has clearly weakened.

Weak demand follow-up has become the core factor dragging on the market. Current sulfur prices remain in a high range. Sustained high raw material costs are suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm, terminal industries are under clear pressure, and auction cargoes have failed to conclude several times. Downstream buyers are generally cautious, mostly sticking to small-volume replenishment for rigid demand, while willingness for bulk stocking remains weak.

Regional market trends are clearly divided. In Shandong, the transaction atmosphere has weakened and prices have pulled back rationally. In Northwest China, transaction sentiment has cooled and upside room is limited. In Northeast China, prices are relatively stable, with limited overall volatility.

The imported granular sulfur market at ports has seen offers loosen. High-level quotations are difficult to transact, and the tug of war between buyers and sellers is obvious. Buyers are testing lower levels, with only a small number of scattered deals concluded in the market, and mainstream price centers have moved lower accordingly.

In terms of market sentiment, after the earlier period of sustained high-level operation, bullish confidence has gradually faded. Most market participants are following the market cautiously and waiting on the sidelines. Cargo holders’ bargaining power has weakened, and some supply has been offered at concessions to facilitate shipments, driving a slight downward correction.

At present, the market’s core contradiction is clear: the tight supply pattern has not changed in the short term and continues to provide firm price support, but persistent weakness on the demand side and insufficient downstream acceptance severely limit upside room. This has formed a typical stalemate of tight supply but demand drag.

Outlook: In the short term, the sulfur market is expected to continue fluctuating within a high range with weak consolidation, while the probability of sharp rises or falls is relatively low. Overseas developments and the arrival pace of imported cargoes remain the main uncertainties on the supply side, continuing to support downside resilience, so room for a deep decline is limited. However, insufficient downstream rigid-demand follow-up and weak acceptance of high prices are difficult to improve quickly, leaving the market short of sustained upward momentum. Sulfur prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term, with the market center slowly weakening. Follow-up attention should focus on imported cargo arrivals, the pace of concentrated terminal rigid-demand release, and changes in regional independent refinery transactions while waiting for new directional guidance.

Specific regional market prices are as follows:

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 20: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,480-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 20: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse prices were RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station prices were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.