Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 8: U.S.-Iran Conflict Re-Emerges, Cost Support Remains Strong

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 8, the domestic monoammonium phosphate 55% powder index stood at 4,435.00, flat from the previous working day; the 55% granular index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market operated at high levels.

On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing previous orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained high, traders maintained a firm mindset, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, current sentiment is characterized by sellers remaining firm but constrained, buyers staying cautious and watchful, and traders holding goods while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer plants are currently operating at low loads. Some enterprises have already completed part of their raw material procurement, while willingness to purchase at high prices remains weak. Actual procurement is mainly limited to small-volume need-based purchases, with sentiment relatively cautious.

On the raw material side, a new round of direct military confrontation broke out between the United States and Iran today. U.S. forces carried out airstrikes on Iranian coastal targets and restarted oil sanctions, while Iran immediately retaliated against U.S. military bases in the Gulf. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply, and expectations for an escalation in regional geopolitical conflict rose significantly. Sulfur prices fluctuated firmly at high levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. Cost-side pressure continued to increase, and enterprises maintained a strong willingness to hold prices firm.

Overall, supported by costs and pending orders, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to remain stable at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the impact of sulfur market movements on cost transmission following the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 8, the domestic mainstream diammonium phosphate 64% granular index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% content index stood at 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to operate steadily.

On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Market sentiment toward holding prices firm remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remained strong.

On the demand side, performance remained relatively muted. Demand is still in the traditional fertilizer-use gap period, and domestic autumn sowing preparation has not yet started on a concentrated basis. Downstream compound fertilizer plants are mostly operating at low rates, with procurement limited to small-volume daily rigid-demand replenishment. Grassroots distributors remain strongly wait-and-see, and overall trading activity is stagnant and relatively light.

On the raw material side, a new round of direct military confrontation broke out between the United States and Iran today. U.S. forces carried out airstrikes on Iranian coastal targets and restarted oil sanctions, while Iran immediately retaliated against U.S. military bases in the Gulf. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply, and expectations for an escalation in regional geopolitical conflict rose significantly. Sulfur prices fluctuated firmly at high levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. High raw material prices continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the diammonium phosphate market is expected to continue high-level consolidation in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on July 8, the domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur price stood at 8,900.00, up 1.14% from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur stood at 8,880.00, up 1.14%; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur stood at 8,850.00, up 1.14%; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur stood at 8,830.00, up 1.15%; East China solid sulfur stood at 9,030.00, down 2.83%; and East China liquid sulfur stood at 8,875.00, down 0.62%.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the sulfur market generally showed high-level volatility and regional divergence. Renewed twists in the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation brought expectations of tighter imported supply, while shutdowns and maintenance at East China refineries reduced regional circulating supply, becoming the core bullish support for the market.

The imported sulfur market at ports was affected by industry meetings diverting market attention, and overall trading was relatively light. Yesterday, imported granular sulfur prices remained stable. This morning, there were no effective firm offers, and traders in the market maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market lacked bulk rigid-demand transactions to drive price fluctuations.

Domestic sulfur performance varied significantly by region. Shandong liquid sulfur showed the strongest performance. Yesterday, signs of recovery had already appeared at the bottom of the market. In the previous period, the supply side continuously lowered auction prices and offered concessions to facilitate shipments, and low prices gradually activated downstream procurement demand. The trading atmosphere continued to improve. Today, under the dual bullish support of geopolitical disruption and tighter local supply, prices rebounded sharply. Local refinery auction premiums expanded accordingly, and concentrated release of downstream rigid demand further boosted market trading.

In Northwest China, transactions for distant solid sulfur cargoes weakened yesterday. After a slight price increase the previous day, the upward trend failed to continue, and most participants mainly adopted a wait-and-see shipment strategy. Today, market sentiment recovered slightly. Low-priced cargoes from Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia attracted distant buyers to replenish stocks, and the transaction center moved slightly higher.

In Northeast China, liquid sulfur prices remained stable, with a relatively balanced supply-demand pattern and no clear upward or downward driver.

Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain a high-level, wide-range volatile pattern in the short term. Expectations of imported supply contraction caused by geopolitical conflict, tighter supply due to maintenance at some domestic refineries, and phased downstream rigid-demand restocking will continue to support the market. However, sluggish port transactions, high prices suppressing downstream willingness to continue stockpiling, and expectations of concentrated arrivals of Middle East cargoes previously stranded will limit upside price space.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 8: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 8: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 8: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 8: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 8: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 8: In the Shandong MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 8: In the Sichuan MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 8: In the Yunnan MAP market, ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 8: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 8: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 8: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 8: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 8: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% self-pickup station quotations were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.