Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, June 18: Guidance Prices Adjusted Up Again; Demand Follow-Through Awaited

MAP Price Index

According to FDD data estimates, on June 18, China’s 55% powder MAP index stood at 4,398.75, unchanged from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, unchanged; the 58% powder MAP index was 4,710.00, unchanged.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast

China’s MAP market remained firm today. Most producers are still executing previous orders. After the latest guidance price was implemented, the 55% powder ex-works price in Central China was raised again, broadly in line with current market levels. Traders maintained firm sentiment, while actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

Market sentiment remains characterized by firm but constrained sellers, cautious buyers, and traders reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases. On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between the end of summer fertilizer demand and the yet-to-start autumn fertilizer preparation season. End-user demand remains weak, and downstream compound fertilizer plants are operating at low loads. Some large producers hold certain raw material inventories and are adopting a wait-and-see procurement approach, while other plants purchase based on immediate needs.

On the raw material side, geopolitical risks appear to be easing, with the market waiting for both sides to formally sign the agreement. The easing of U.S.-Iran tensions has reduced the risk premium, leading to a rational correction in previously high sulfur prices. However, port inventories remain low, and price support still exists. Sulfuric acid prices are fluctuating at high levels, while phosphate rock prices remain firm. Cost pressure continues to increase, and producers have limited willingness to cut prices.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain firm at high levels in the short term. Further attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the start of downstream compound fertilizer procurement for the autumn season, and the impact of sulfur market movements on costs after the U.S.-Iran agreement is signed.

DAP Price Index

According to FDD data estimates, on June 18, China’s mainstream 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,421.67, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, unchanged; the 57% DAP index was 4,300.00, unchanged.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast

China’s DAP market remained firm with a wait-and-see tone today. Some producers are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders. Raw material prices remain high, and production cost pressure is still significant. Actual transactions continue to be negotiated.

Market sentiment remains cautious, and trading activity is sluggish. On the demand side, the market is still in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a large scale, and downstream compound fertilizer plants are mostly operating at low loads. Procurement is limited to small-volume, need-based replenishment. Grassroots distributors remain cautious, and actual transactions are mainly small, scattered orders.

On the raw material side, geopolitical risks appear to be easing, and the easing of U.S.-Iran tensions has reduced the risk premium, prompting a rational correction in previously high sulfur prices. However, low port inventories continue to provide strong price support. Sulfuric acid prices remain stable at high levels, while phosphate rock prices remain firm. High raw material prices continue to put pressure on costs and provide strong support to the DAP market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see consolidation pattern in the short term. Further attention should be paid to raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-through, and subsequent export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data estimates, on June 18, China’s Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur price was 9,600.00, down RMB 200 from the previous working day. Dafeng Port granular sulfur was 9,380.00, down RMB 200. Zhenjiang Port powder/lump sulfur was 9,350.00, down RMB 200. Dafeng Port powder/lump sulfur was 9,330.00, down RMB 200. East China solid sulfur was 8,730.00, unchanged, while East China liquid sulfur was 8,730.00, unchanged.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

China’s sulfur market weakened overall today. Imported granular sulfur at ports temporarily stabilized after the sharp correction seen earlier, with mainstream transactions consolidating around recent low levels. Geopolitical factors remain the largest uncertainty for the market. The U.S. and Iran have formally signed a ceasefire memorandum of understanding, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, significantly easing supply risk concerns. However, actual navigation recovery and arrivals may still take time, so short-term market tensions are unlikely to reverse quickly.

As a result, both buyers and sellers remain cautious, and the market lacks a clear short-term direction. Overall, wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. Downstream buyers have limited willingness to actively build inventory, while upstream sellers face some shipment pressure.

Looking ahead, the sulfur market is expected to remain in a volatile tug-of-war in the short term. With the U.S.-Iran agreement signed and the Strait of Hormuz expected to resume normal navigation later, Middle Eastern sulfur supply will gradually return to the market, creating downward pressure on forward prices. However, supply recovery will take time, as tanker insurance, channel clearance, and Middle Eastern refinery restarts all require a transition period. Large-scale arrivals are unlikely in the short term. Meanwhile, rigid demand from phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate remains, and the cost side has not collapsed, leaving some support below current prices.

Most market participants are now waiting for the actual recovery of navigation through the strait. Spot market activity is mainly limited to long-term contract traders adjusting with the market. Without new influencing factors, trading sentiment is unlikely to change materially, and prices may continue to consolidate in a volatile pattern. Further attention should be paid to the recovery progress of strait navigation, the arrival pace of Middle Eastern cargoes, and downstream large-scale acceptance.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

June 18: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,400-4,500/mt delivered, unchanged.

June 18: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,250/mt delivered, unchanged.

June 18: In Henan, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,500-4,550/mt delivered, unchanged.

June 18: In Hubei, mainstream 55% powder MAP ex-works prices were around RMB 4,200-4,450/mt, unchanged.

June 18: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,500/mt delivered, unchanged.

June 18: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,500/mt delivered, unchanged.

June 18: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,150/mt delivered, unchanged.

June 18: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-works prices were around RMB 4,200-4,250/mt, unchanged.

June 18: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP ex-works self-pickup prices were RMB 4,300-4,350/mt, unchanged.

June 18: In Northeast China, 64% DAP ex-works self-pickup prices were RMB 4,550-4,600/mt, unchanged.

June 18: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were RMB 4,300-4,500/mt, up.

June 18: In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-works self-pickup prices were RMB 4,400-4,450/mt, unchanged.

June 18: In Shandong, 64% DAP warehouse self-pickup prices were RMB 4,750-4,950/mt, up; 57% DAP platform self-pickup prices were RMB 4,350-4,550/mt, up.