Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, June 23: Cost-Demand Tug-of-War, Prices Remain Firm

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 23, the domestic 55% powder monoammonium phosphate (MAP) index stood at 4,411.25, flat from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained firm at high levels today. On the supply side, most producers were still executing earlier orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained elevated, traders maintained firm sentiment, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

In the market, sellers remained firm but constrained, buyers were cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between the end of summer fertilizer demand and the start of autumn fertilizer preparation. End-user fertilizer demand remained weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to operate at low rates. Some producers had already completed partial raw material restocking earlier, showing limited willingness to purchase at high prices, while actual procurement remained mainly small-volume and need-based.

On the raw material side, there were no new conflict catalysts in the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, and the broader direction of peace talks remained in place. Although traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to some extent, a full normalization of the shipping channel is unlikely to be achieved quickly, meaning the bottom support from geopolitical premiums is expected to continue. Sulfur prices fluctuated on a weak note today, with divergent trends. Port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, while phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm.

Overall, supported by high costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain stable at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the start of autumn fertilizer preparation by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the transmission of sulfur market movements to the cost side after the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 23, the domestic mainstream 64% granular diammonium phosphate (DAP) index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,412.50, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to run firmly today. On the supply side, some producers mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders, while others gradually issued new prices. Price-support sentiment remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

In the market, some producers successively announced new prices, and sentiment toward holding prices firm remained strong.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a large scale. Most downstream compound fertilizer plants maintained low operating rates, with procurement limited to small volumes for daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly small and scattered, leaving overall trading activity subdued.

On the raw material side, there were no new conflict catalysts in the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, and the broader direction of peace talks remained in place. Although traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to some extent, a full normalization of the shipping channel is unlikely to be achieved quickly, meaning bottom support from geopolitical premiums is expected to continue. Sulfur prices fluctuated on a weak note today, with divergent trends. Port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels. Phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels, and high raw material costs continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain a firm trend in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on June 23, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,300.00/tonne, down 1.06% from the previous working day. The granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 9,280.00/tonne, down 1.07% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,250.00/tonne, down 1.07% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 9,230.00/tonne, down 1.07% from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,730.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day, while liquid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,730.00/tonne, also flat from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic sulfur market showed regional divergence today. The port market weakened as wait-and-see sentiment increased, with the price center moving lower and trading activity remaining muted. The liquid sulfur market in Shandong was relatively quiet, with downstream buyers only maintaining rigid restocking demand. The clear differences across regions indicate that the current market lacks a unified driving force.

At ports, the domestic imported sulfur market performed weakly overall today. Although there were some sporadic inquiries, overall procurement willingness was limited, and the trading atmosphere remained subdued. Overall, the port market lacked effective news-driven support. Traders showed generally low interest in entering the market, holders mainly followed prevailing market conditions, and wait-and-see sentiment remained strong.

The Shandong liquid sulfur market operated quietly today, with a lukewarm transaction atmosphere. The market lacked new effective stimulus, and market participants became more cautious. Downstream buyers only maintained orderly restocking based on rigid demand, and procurement sentiment turned more cautious. Compared with the previous period of sustained downstream purchasing interest and active trading, activity in the Shandong market cooled significantly today.

Looking ahead, the sulfur market currently lacks clear directional drivers and may maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term. At ports, wait-and-see sentiment among traders remains dominant. Without new stimulus, the market is expected to continue weakening in the near term. In Shandong, trading sentiment remains subdued, with downstream procurement mainly based on rigid demand, making significant improvement unlikely in the short term.

From a broader perspective, the sharp increase in sulfur prices previously driven by geopolitical factors has started to undergo a rational correction. On the demand side, lower phosphate fertilizer operating rates have already created negative feedback. If geopolitical tensions gradually ease, sulfur costs may still have room to return further, and the price center could continue to move lower. Going forward, attention should be paid to port transaction activity and vessel arrivals, changes in downstream phosphate fertilizer operating rates and procurement pace, as well as the potential impact of geopolitical developments on the international sulfur supply chain.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

June 23: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 23: In the Northeast China MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 23: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,500-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 23: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

June 23: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 23: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 23: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,150/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 23: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

June 23: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

June 23: In Northeast China, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

June 23: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.

June 23: In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

June 23: In Shandong, 64% DAP ex-warehouse self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with offers stable. 57% DAP self-pickup prices at railway platforms were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.