Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, June 24: Cost Support Remains, Wait-and-See Sentiment Grows

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 24, the domestic 55% powder monoammonium phosphate (MAP) index stood at 4,435.00, up 0.48% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained firm at high levels with a slightly stronger trend today. On the supply side, most producers were still executing earlier orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained elevated, traders maintained firm sentiment, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

In the market, sellers remained firm but constrained, buyers were cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between the end of summer fertilizer demand and the start of autumn fertilizer preparation. End-user fertilizer demand remained weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to operate at low rates. Some producers had already completed partial raw material restocking earlier, showing limited willingness to purchase at high prices, while actual procurement remained mainly small-volume and need-based.

On the raw material side, sulfur prices fluctuated weakly today, while port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to consolidate at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the start of autumn fertilizer preparation by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the transmission of sulfur market movements to the cost side after the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 24, the domestic mainstream 64% granular diammonium phosphate (DAP) index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,412.50, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic diammonium phosphate market operated at high levels today. On the supply side, some producers mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders, while others gradually issued new prices. Price-support sentiment remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

In the market, some producers successively announced new prices, and sentiment toward holding prices firm remained strong.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a large scale. Most downstream compound fertilizer plants maintained low operating rates, with procurement limited to small volumes for daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly small and scattered, leaving overall trading activity deadlocked and subdued.

On the raw material side, sulfur prices fluctuated weakly today, while port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels. Phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels, and high raw material costs continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain a firm trend in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on June 24, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,200.00/tonne, down 1.08% from the previous working day. The granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 9,180.00/tonne, down 1.08% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,150.00/tonne, down 1.08% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 9,130.00/tonne, down 1.08% from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,730.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day, while liquid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,730.00/tonne, also flat from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic sulfur market showed an overall weak and volatile trend today, with market sentiment clearly affected by international news and trading activity remaining subdued. Since the U.S. and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has gradually reopened. At least 36 merchant vessels passed through the Strait on June 22, followed by some oil tankers on June 23.

News that multiple vessels carrying sulfur resources passed through the Strait continued to circulate in the market. Although vessel schedules involving China remain limited, market participants maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude, weighing on spot trading. Against this backdrop, midstream and downstream enterprises mostly stayed cautious, with weak confidence in taking delivery and limited overall purchasing willingness.

At ports, the domestic imported sulfur market saw light trading today. The spot market lacked effective transaction support, and prices had no clear guidance. Affected by news of resumed navigation through the Strait, market sentiment is expected to continue weakening.

In regional markets, the Shandong liquid sulfur market moved lower today, with a subdued transaction atmosphere. As the release of vessels delayed near the Strait improved supply recovery expectations, market expectations turned more bearish. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm cooled noticeably, with operations limited to small-volume replenishment based on rigid demand. Various supply points subsequently lowered shipment offers, though actual transactions remained average.

Overall, the sulfur market is currently in a sentiment-driven correction phase. Supply recovery expectations brought by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are expected to continue weighing on market sentiment in the short term, and the wait-and-see attitude among participants may be difficult to dispel quickly. Holders may have to follow market conditions while waiting, and prices may continue to consolidate lower.

However, actual arrivals of Middle Eastern cargoes still involve a certain time lag, and short-term spot supply has not yet increased significantly, which provides some support to prices. The sulfur market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with insufficient upward momentum and some downside pressure ahead. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual pace of port arrivals, changes in downstream purchasing sentiment, and further shifts in market sentiment after the failed tender at Shenghong Petrochemical.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

June 24: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers raised.

June 24: In the Northeast China MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 24: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers raised.

June 24: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

June 24: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers raised.

June 24: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 24: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers raised.

June 24: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

June 24: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

June 24: In Northeast China, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

June 24: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.

June 24: In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

June 24: In Shandong, 64% DAP ex-warehouse self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with offers stable. 57% DAP self-pickup prices at railway platforms were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.