Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Lukewarm Market Atmosphere, Slight Slack in New Orders

June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM

Feidoodoo

2594

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The domestic MAP market remains stable today, but underlying weakness persists as some factories cut prices amid limited new orders, leading to fragmented transactions and hidden price declines. High plant operating rates contrast with weak demand, as downstream compound fertilizer makers hold existing stocks and show low procurement interest, particularly for phosphorus-based materials. Although supported by firm raw material costs—such as rising synthetic ammonia and tight phosphate rock supply—MAP producers are increasingly willing to discount for new business. In contrast, the DAP market maintains stability, driven by solid pending order execution and high cost support. As of December 13, Feidoodoo Index reports steady prices: 64% granular DAP at 3880.00, 60% brown at 3620.00, and 57% DAP at 3602.50. However, trading sentiment is lukewarm, with slow circulation and widespread hesitation downstream. While short-term DAP prices are likely to remain stable with minor adjustments, MAP

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, domestic MAP market prices remained stable. On the factory side, most factories are supported by pending orders, maintaining firm pricing. Some enterprises with few pending orders reduced prices to sell, with actual transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis, leading to covert price drops and market disarray. Market-wise, localized transaction focal points have slightly declined, with limited new orders and an overall weak trading atmosphere. On the supply side, MAP plants are operating at high loads, with the industry's capacity utilization rate remaining high. Demand-wise, market demand is weak. In industrial demand, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises already hold some stock, showing weak enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly focusing on high-nitrogen fertilizers, leading to limited demand for phosphorus. Regarding raw materials, the price of synthetic ammonia continues to adjust slightly upwards, and the supply of phosphate rock remains tight, keeping costs firm. In summary, current MAP enterprises exhibit a trend of apparent stability but covert price reductions, with poor order receipts and a willingness to discount for new orders. It is expected that in the short term, MAP market prices will still have downward potential.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo Index data: On December 13, the domestic mainstream index for 64% granular DAP was 3880.00, stable; the index for 60% brown DAP was 3620.00, stable; and the index for 57% DAP was 3602.50, stable.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, domestic DAP market prices continued to remain stable. On the enterprise side, companies are currently executing domestic pending orders, with sufficient pending volumes and stable price quotations. Market-wise, the trading atmosphere is average, with a lukewarm mood, poor purchasing enthusiasm, slow goods circulation, and a continued wait-and-see attitude downstream. Demand-wise, overall market demand is average, with the winter storage market progressing slowly and a persistent wait-and-see sentiment. Regarding raw materials, the price of synthetic ammonia continues to adjust slightly upwards, and phosphate rock prices remain firm, with high costs providing support. In summary, the current DAP market, supported by high costs and pending orders, maintains firm pricing. It is expected that in the short term, DAP market prices will continue to undergo adjustments while remaining stable.

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