Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Pre-Festival Demand Unlikely to Improve, Market Conditions Weakly Adjusting

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to Feiduoduo data calculations: On January 30th, the domestic 55% powder MAP index was 3100.00, showing a decrease; the 55% granular index was stable at 3250.00; the 58% powder index remained stable at 3383.33.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic MAP market prices showed a weak downward adjustment. From the enterprise perspective, there was insufficient follow-up on new orders, and enterprise inventory continued to rise. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, some enterprises gradually reduced production by shutting down installations, expecting a reduction in supply. Currently, there are mostly no clear quotations, and transactions continue to be negotiated, leading the market gradually into a state with no price and no market. Regarding the market, new order transactions are sluggish, with overall demand being flat. On the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment is in wait-and-see mode, pre-festival demand is weak, and the market situation is unlikely to improve. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have limited follow-up on new orders, with many reducing production to maintain prices and purchasing raw materials in small quantities. In terms of raw materials, the prices of sulfur and synthetic ammonia are stable with some fluctuations, while phosphate rock prices remain firm, providing weak support from raw material prices. Overall, the current MAP market has a cold trading atmosphere before the festival, and it is expected that the MAP market prices will continue to weakly adjust in the short term.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to Feiduoduo data calculations: On January 30th, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was stable at 3851.67; the 60% brown index was stable at 3450.00; the 57% content index remained stable at 3522.50.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, domestic DAP market prices remain stable. From the enterprise perspective, most enterprises have sufficient pending shipments. As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic transaction atmosphere is increasingly flat, with limited follow-up on new orders, and enterprises mainly focus on previously pre-sold orders, with new order transactions primarily being negotiated. Regarding the market, the market operation is flat, with limited follow-up on new orders, and an overall poor transaction atmosphere. On the demand side, downstream demand has not improved, with still strong wait-and-see sentiment and limited market fluctuations, making it difficult for the demand side to see improvements in the short term. In terms of raw materials, the transaction center for sulfur and synthetic ammonia continues to move downwards, phosphate rock prices remain stable, and support from the cost side is weakening. Overall, although DAP enterprises have limited follow-up on new orders, sufficient pre-received pending orders from earlier periods keep the enterprise sentiment firm. It is expected that the DAP market prices will mainly weakly adjust in the short term.