Phosphate Fertilizer Monthly: Insufficient Demand Follow-Up, Weak Market Operation

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis and Future Forecast:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Market Price Analysis:

This month, the domestic MAP market operated with weak adjustments, with prices mostly stable but slightly declining.

According to Feiduoduo data calculations: As of January 29, 2024, the domestic 55% powder MAP index was 3137.50, a decrease of 241.88 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decrease of 7.16%; the 55% granular index was 3250.00, a decrease of 150.00 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decrease of 4.41%; the 58% powder index was 3383.33, a decrease of 250.00 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decrease of 6.88%.

At the beginning of the month, the MAP market prices continued to be mostly stable with slight decreases. Manufacturers gradually reduced pre-received orders, and the follow-up of new orders in the market was weak. Some factories subtly reduced their quotations, leading to disordered industry prices and a weak market operation. This resulted in an increase in the number of factories reducing production or even shutting down, low daily production, negative operation rates for MAP, limited demand from downstream, overall low purchase prices, and a continued wait-and-see attitude.

In the middle of the month, the MAP market had no clear quotations, and prices mostly remained stable. Manufacturers mainly executed pending orders without clear quotations, and market prices continued to be disordered. Some traders and small factories continuously offered low-end prices, actual transactions were still mainly through negotiations, and the performance of downstream demand remained poor. Compound fertilizer companies had certain inventories, market shipments were slow, demand was sluggish, purchasing enthusiasm was not high, maintained a small volume of as-needed purchases, limited new order transaction volume, insufficient transactions, and the overall market remained weak.

At the end of the month, the MAP market continued the trend of being mostly stable with slight decreases. Enterprises had a small volume of new order transactions, poor performance in downstream demand, actual negotiations for transactions, weak downstream demand, insufficient follow-up of new orders for compound fertilizers, slow shipments, sales pressure, the continued decline in factory operating rates, weak purchasing enthusiasm for raw materials, increasing sales pressure, some enterprises adjusted their ex-factory prices or introduced related policies accepted a small number of orders. The market continued to operate weakly with a low transaction atmosphere.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Market Price Analysis:

This month, the domestic DAP market prices were mostly stable with slight declines, and poor market shipments, and prices mostly remained stable.

According to Feiduoduo data calculations: As of January 29, 2024, the domestic 64% granular DAP index was 3851.67, a decrease of 20.00 from the end of the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 0.52%; the 60% brown index was 3450.00, a decrease of 10.00 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29%; the 57% content DAP index was 3522.50, a decrease of 45.00 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26%.

At the beginning of the month, DAP market prices underwent minor downward adjustments while remaining stable. Enterprises had large volumes of pending shipments, some extending to mid-February, stable collection prices, and enterprises mainly executed pre-received orders. With the support of pending orders, the sentiment was firm. However, there was still a basic need in the downstream market, purchasing enthusiasm remained average, the overall sentiment continued to be wait-and-see, the market shipment atmosphere was light, the overall wait-and-see sentiment persisted, and the atmosphere was slightly stagnant, with actual transactions maintained through negotiations.

In the middle of the month, DAP market prices continued to be mostly stable with slight declines, and the wait-and-see sentiment among operators did not decrease. Factories continued to ship winter storage pre-received orders, with sufficient pending shipments underpinning stable ex-factory prices. In contrast, trader quotations were disordered, increasing the space for market negotiations, actual transactions remained on a case-by-case basis, the performance of the downstream demand side continued to be weak without significant improvement, terminal purchasing enthusiasm was average, downstream traders had weak intentions to restock, and the overall wait-and-see sentiment persisted.

At the end of the month, the DAP market still had a poor shipping atmosphere, and the situation continued to be weak and bearish. Enterprise ex-factory prices remained stable, adopting a model of phased release and order acceptance, with satisfactory pending performance, slight increases in enterprise operation and daily production, continuous price probing in the market, poor downstream demand performance, strong bearish sentiment among operators, low corn prices in agriculture, lackluster fertilizer purchasing enthusiasm among farmers; cautious operation by downstream compound fertilizer companies, persistent wait-and-see attitude, limited just-in-time follow-up, and an average transaction atmosphere overall.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Future Forecast:

In terms of raw materials, phosphate rock prices were mainly stable, with fewer new orders from manufacturers and mostly stable ex-factory quotations. Some enterprises entered the mining suspension period, industry operation was at a low level, and phosphate rock prices are expected to continue to operate weakly and stably next month; synthetic ammonia prices fluctuated, with different market atmospheres in various main production areas, overall showing a strong north and weak south trend, with reduced production supporting the northern market; the southern market had ample supply, concentrated recovery of previously shut down installations, bearish supply side, and synthetic ammonia market transaction center is expected to continue the trend of mostly stable with slight declines next month; the sulfur market weakened, market transactions were lackluster, enterprise ex-factory prices were adjusted downward, and the sulfur market situation is expected to remain in a stalemate. Overall, with weak adjustments on the cost side, cost support is expected to weaken next month.

In terms of supply and demand, on the supply side, MAP installations began to operate at reduced loads, and the DAP industry's operating rate slightly increased. On the demand side, demand remained weak this month, with downstream compound fertilizer raw material purchasing intentions weak, maintaining a small volume of as-needed purchases, and relatively limited new order transactions.

Overall, upstream raw material prices in the phosphate fertilizer market were stagnant, with poor market shipments, and flat downstream demand, and the phosphate fertilizer market is expected to continue to operate weakly and adjust next month, with prices mostly stable with slight declines.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions:

Domestic MAP Industry Operating Conditions:

As of January 26, 2024, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was about 49.85%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.43%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.80%; the MAP industry operating rate declined, continuing to be lower than the same period last year.

Domestic DAP Industry Operating Conditions:

As of January 26, 2024, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was about 55.73%, a month-on-month increase of 10.02%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.82%; the DAP industry operating rate increased within the month, still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Production Trend:

Domestic MAP Production Trend:

According to Feiduoduo data statistics, as of January 26, the domestic MAP monthly production volume for this month was 79.93 million tons, a decrease of 19.10 million tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 19.29%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.74%.

Domestic DAP Production Trend:

According to Feiduoduo data statistics, as of January 26, the domestic DAP monthly production volume for this month was approximately 104.70 million tons, a decrease of 8.70 million tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 7.67%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.65%.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Import and Export Data:

Domestic MAP Export Data:

According to customs data, in December 2023, China's MAP export volume was 122,300 tons, a decrease of 1.36 from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 10.03%; a decrease of 9.62 from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 44.04%; the export average price for this month was 627.11 USD/ton; from January to December 2023, the cumulative export total volume was 2.0363 million tons, an increase of 25,400 tons from last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.26%.

Domestic MAP Import Data:

According to customs data, in December 2023, China's MAP import volume was 0.00 tons, remaining flat from the same period last year; a decrease of 799.88 from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 100.00%; the export average price for this month was 0.00 USD/ton; from January to December 2023, the cumulative import total volume was 1,201.07 tons, an increase of 813.16 tons from last year, a year-on-year increase of 209.63%.

Domestic DAP Export Data:

According to customs data, in December 2023, China's DAP export volume was 367,200 tons, an increase of 11.46 from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 45.37%; a decrease of 24.85 from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 40.36%; the export average price for this month was 575.04 USD/ton; from January to December 2023, the cumulative export total volume was 5.036 million tons, an increase of 1.4566 million tons from last year, a year-on-year increase of 40.69%.

Domestic DAP Import Data:

According to customs data, in December 2023, China's DAP import volume was 200.00 tons, an increase of 199.78 from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 90,810.00%; an increase of 99.45 from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 98.90%; the import average price for this month was 804.55 USD/ton; from January to December 2023, the cumulative import total volume was 325.94 tons, a decrease of 2.23 tons from last year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Apparent Consumption Data:

Domestic MAP Apparent Consumption Data:

In December 2023, China's MAP apparent consumption volume was 868,000 tons, an increase of 99,300 tons from November, a month-on-month increase of 12.92%, an increase of 62,200 tons from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%; from January to December 2023, China's cumulative apparent consumption total volume for MAP was 8.6332 million tons, an increase of 523,100 tons from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 6.45%.

Domestic DAP Apparent Consumption Data:

In December 2023, China's DAP apparent consumption volume was 767,000 tons, an increase of 315,600 tons from November, a month-on-month increase of 69.92%, an increase of 17,400 tons from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.32%; from January to December 2023, China's cumulative apparent consumption total volume for DAP was 8.9029 million tons, an increase of 102,100 tons from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.16%.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend:

Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend:

As of January 26, the domestic MAP market's main port inventory volume was 12,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from the end of last month, a decrease of 82.09%, a decrease of 125,900 tons from the same period last year, a decrease of 91.30%; the domestic MAP market's main port inventory volume decreased within the month.

Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend:

As of January 26, the domestic DAP market's main port inventory volume was 42,200 tons, a decrease of 121,000 tons from the end of last month, a decrease of 74.14%, a decrease of 130,100 tons from the same period last year, a decrease of 75.51%; the domestic DAP market's main port inventory volume decreased within the month.