Phosphate Fertilizer Monthly: Sharp Declines in Sulfur Keep Phosphate Fertilizers in Weak Consolidation (August 2026)

1. Phosphate Fertilizer Price Analysis and Market Outlook

1.1 MAP Price Analysis

In August, the domestic MAP market moved lower weakly overall. Sulfur retreated from high levels, sulfuric acid prices weakened in tandem, and phosphate rock prices remained stable, gradually loosening overall cost support. At the beginning of the month, the market remained weak. Although official supply-guarantee guidance prices remained at benchmark levels, room for negotiation widened in actual transactions. Downstream compound fertilizer producers shipped autumn fertilizer slowly, faced difficulties digesting finished-product inventories, maintained low operating rates, and showed insufficient willingness to replenish raw materials. New-order follow-up was weak.

In the middle and latter part of the month, downward pressure increased further. Some producers introduced floor-price and concession policies to stimulate sales, while traders sold at lower prices to recover funds, without effectively activating transactions. To control production costs, downstream producers adjusted formulations to reduce phosphorus content. Combined with substitution effects from lower-priced nitrogen and potash raw materials, this further suppressed MAP demand. With upstream raw materials continuing to decline, cost support weakened further, factory inventory pressure increased, and market trading remained sluggish.

According to Feidoodoo data, as of August 31, 2026, the domestic 55% powder MAP price index was 4,365.50, down 47.50 from the beginning of the month, or 1.08%; the 55% granular MAP price index was 4,425.00, down 25.00, or 0.56%; and the 58% powder MAP price index was 4,676.67, down 33.33, or 0.71%.

1.2 DAP Price Analysis

In August, the domestic DAP market mainly consolidated with a weak bias. Although raw material prices softened during the month, cost support from earlier high-priced raw materials remained. Producers generally retained a strong willingness to support prices, prioritized deliveries under earlier contracts, and gradually advanced shipments to winter-storage regions. Market inquiries were quiet early in the month, downstream purchasing momentum was insufficient, firm transactions were sporadic, and low-end negotiated transactions appeared.

In mid-month, modest raw material declines did not change the market stalemate. Producer quotations remained firm, although transaction prices allowed flexible negotiation. The autumn fertilizer season started slowly, end-user enthusiasm for stockpiling was low, and only limited inquiries emerged. By late August, lower raw material prices further affected sentiment, but downstream demand did not improve materially. Sales improved only slightly, even as the autumn fertilizer-use season approached, making it difficult to generate concentrated volume. Market activity remained low.

According to Feidoodoo data, as of August 31, 2026, the domestic 64% granular DAP price index was 4,571.67, unchanged from the beginning of the month; the 60% brown DAP price index was 4,700.00, up 350.00, or 8.05%; and the 57% DAP price index was 4,422.50, down 22.50, or 0.51%.

1.3 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

On the raw material side,

phosphate rock supply remains rigid because of resource controls and mining schedules. High-grade material remains tight in circulation, and mining companies retain a firm shipment stance, providing medium- to long-term cost support to downstream phosphate fertilizers. A clear short-term easing is unlikely.

After surging and retreating, sulfur has entered a contest between bullish and bearish factors. Geopolitical developments and the pace of imported cargo arrivals remain core uncertainties. Even if domestic refinery restarts add local supply, the global tight supply-demand balance has not fully reversed. Price movements will pass directly through to phosphate fertilizer production costs, limiting further cost declines. Sulfuric acid will adjust in tandem with sulfur. Cost pressure for acid producers using purchased sulfur will ease in stages, while integrated producers with their own pyrite supply will retain clear cost advantages.

Overall, cost-side support has yet to fully dissipate. Marginal shifts in raw material prices will continue to shape phosphate fertilizer producers' appetite for capacity utilization and their pricing strategies. Going forward, sustained monitoring of supply-demand balances and price dynamics across the three key raw material categories remains essential.

On the supply side,

producers will flexibly adjust output according to raw material costs, finished-product inventories and orders. Raw material costs still provide underlying support, and with limited margin recovery, the industry lacks momentum for significant operating-rate increases. Plant restarts and maintenance will overlap, making supply releases relatively gradual. Additional supply will depend more on the actual execution of downstream orders.

On the demand side,

the autumn fertilizer season creates scope for phased restocking by compound fertilizer producers. However, grassroots distributors remain cautious, generally maintaining low inventories and purchasing as needed. The sustainability of large-scale concentrated procurement remains uncertain. Export expectations may provide support, but the pace of actual overseas order releases remains uncertain.

Overall, phosphate fertilizer supply releases next month are expected to remain controlled, while costs will provide some support. Demand has seasonal recovery potential but concentrated restocking remains weak. Combined with uncertain export execution, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, depending on actual downstream autumn fertilizer procurement and export demand.

2. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Operating Rates

2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Rate

The average domestic MAP industry operating rate was approximately 54.84% this month, down 1.73 percentage points month on month and down 17.57 percentage points year on year. The operating rate declined during the month and remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Rate

The average domestic DAP industry operating rate was approximately 45.85% this month, up 5.89 percentage points month on month and down 19.49 percentage points year on year. The operating rate increased during the month but remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.

3. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Output

3.1 Domestic MAP Output

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic MAP output was 995,600 tonnes this month, up 30,500 tonnes from last month, or 3.16%, but down 141,200 tonnes year on year, or 12.42%.

3.2 Domestic DAP Output

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic DAP output was approximately 905,800 tonnes this month, up 116,400 tonnes from last month, or 14.75%, but down 366,600 tonnes year on year, or 28.81%.

4. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Export Data

4.1 Domestic MAP Export Data

According to customs data, China's MAP exports in July 2026 totalled 400 tonnes, down 400 tonnes from the previous month, or 47.62%, and down 343,700 tonnes year on year, or 99.87%. The average export price was USD 1,092.85/tonne. Cumulative MAP exports from January to December 2026 totalled 113,000 tonnes, down 487,900 tonnes year on year, or 81.19%.

4.2 Domestic DAP Export Data

According to customs data, China's DAP exports in July 2026 were zero tonnes, down 55,000 tonnes from the previous month, or 100%, and down 984,300 tonnes year on year, or 100%. The average export price was USD 0/tonne. Cumulative DAP exports from January to December 2026 totalled 73,900 tonnes, down 1.5094 million tonnes year on year, or 95.33%.

5. Domestic Apparent Consumption Data

5.1 Domestic MAP Apparent Consumption

China's apparent MAP consumption was 965,100 tonnes in July 2026, up 800 tonnes from the previous month, or 0.08%, and up 249,200 tonnes year on year, or 34.81%. Cumulative apparent MAP consumption from January to July 2026 was 6.6629 million tonnes, up 582,800 tonnes year on year, or 9.59%.

5.2 Domestic DAP Apparent Consumption

China's apparent DAP consumption was 905,800 tonnes in July 2026, up 255,700 tonnes from the previous month, or 39.33%, and up 658,700 tonnes year on year, or 266.53%. Cumulative apparent DAP consumption from January to July 2026 was 6.4423 million tonnes, up 420,400 tonnes year on year, or 6.98%.

6. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventories

6.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventories

As of the end of this month, MAP inventories at major domestic ports were zero tonnes, unchanged from the end of last month and down 10,000 tonnes year on year, or 100%. MAP port inventories were unchanged during the month and remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.

6.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventories

As of the end of this month, DAP inventories at major domestic ports were 29,500 tonnes, unchanged from the end of last month and down 220,500 tonnes year on year, or 88.20%. DAP port inventories showed no material change during the month and remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.

7. Monthly Sulfur Price Analysis

7.1 Domestic Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook

In August, the domestic sulfur market was characterized by a high-level stalemate in the first part of the month and a clear decline in price benchmarks during the middle and latter parts. Domestic sulfur fluctuated within a range, while imported cargoes at ports declined more sharply. Overall trading was subdued. Port arrivals were limited early in the month and holders remained cautious, but actual downstream purchasing demand contracted and the conflict between bullish and bearish factors accumulated.

In late August, the US-Iran memorandum expired without renewal. Earlier geopolitical risk premiums were gradually absorbed, the broader commodity environment weakened, and wait-and-see sentiment increased. Domestic refinery units restarted, increasing domestic supply. The phosphate fertilizer industry remained in its traditional demand off-season. MAP and DAP producers maintained low operating rates, downstream buyers purchased only raw materials for rigid demand, and autumn fertilizer procurement had not started materially. Although international sulfur prices did not decline broadly, weak domestic fundamentals led to a pronounced domestic spot-market correction. Port supply faced clear downward pressure, domestic factory transactions were under pressure, auction failures increased, and producers used price concessions to stimulate sales.

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 31, 2026, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,550.00 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,530.00 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,500.00 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,480.00 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was priced at 7,700.00 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; and liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 7,325.00 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne.

8. Sulfur Industry Operating Rates

8.1 Domestic Sulfur Operating Rate

The average domestic sulfur industry operating rate was approximately 45.31% this month, up 0.77 percentage points month on month. More producers restarted operations during the month, while some major producers added supply, resulting in modest increases in domestic output and operating rates.

8.2 Domestic Sulfur Output

Domestic sulfur output was approximately 857,000 tonnes this month, up 19,600 tonnes from last month, or 2.34%. More producers restarted operations during the month, while some major producers added supply, resulting in modest increases in domestic output and operating rates.

9. Domestic Sulfur Port Inventories

As of the end of this month, sulfur inventories at major domestic ports were 946,600 tonnes, up 84,900 tonnes from the end of last month, or 9.85%, but down 1.3727 million tonnes year on year, or 59.19%. Port inventories increased during the month but remained below the level recorded in the same period last year. Downstream plants remained cautious and slowed the return of port cargoes, while cargoes arrived at relevant ports, causing spot inventories to rise.

10. Domestic Solid Sulfur Arrivals

According to Feidoodoo data, solid sulfur arrivals at major domestic ports in August were provisionally approximately 123,000 tonnes, including approximately 5,000 tonnes at Yangtze River ports.