Contents

1. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis
   1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis
   1.2 Monoammonium Phosphate Product Price Comparison
   1.3 Diammonium Phosphate Product Price Comparison

2. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions
   2.1 Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Industry Operating Conditions
   2.2 Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Industry Operating Conditions

3. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trend
   3.1 Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Weekly Output Trend
   3.2 Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Weekly Output Trend

4. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend
   4.1 Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trend
   4.2 Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trend

5. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

6. Sulfur Market Analysis
   6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

7. Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

8. Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis
   8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis
   8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis
   8.3 East China Capacity Utilization Rate
   8.4 Solid Sulfur Port Arrivals

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis

Monoammonium Phosphate

This week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to operate steadily at high levels. Prices showed no significant changes, and actual transactions were negotiated.

On the cost side, continued geopolitical disruptions sharply increased shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, disturbing expectations for global seaborne sulfur supply and continuing to provide cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated firmly at high levels, while port inventories remained low. Phosphate rock supply remained tight under resource-control policies, and prices stayed firm at high levels. Sulfuric acid prices also fluctuated at high levels. With multiple raw material prices remaining elevated, monoammonium phosphate producers continued to face relatively heavy cost pressure.

On the demand side, demand remained flat throughout the week. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are currently operating at low rates, and some had already completed phased raw material procurement earlier. Facing high MAP quotations, they showed limited willingness for bulk locking and procurement, mainly maintaining rigid-demand, hand-to-mouth replenishment. New-order follow-up was weak.

Overall, the MAP market this week remained in a stalemate between high cost support and phased demand weakness, with the price center holding steady at high levels.

According to FDD data, this week, the average 55% powder price index was 4,435.00, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%; the average 55% granular price index was 4,450.00, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%; and the average 58% powder price index was 4,710.00, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%.

Diammonium Phosphate

This week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market operated steadily overall, but trading activity remained relatively low.

On the cost side, continued geopolitical disruptions sharply increased shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, disturbing expectations for global seaborne sulfur supply and continuing to provide cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated firmly at high levels, while port inventories remained low. The sulfuric acid market operated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices also remained high. With multiple raw material prices staying elevated, DAP producers continued to face relatively heavy cost pressure, and the industry remained in a prolonged cost-inversion state.

On the demand side, the market is currently in a gap period for agricultural fertilizer use. There is no large-scale fertilizer preparation demand at the terminal grassroots level, and fertilizer consumption by farmers is relatively weak. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are operating at low loads, and earlier raw material inventories are relatively sufficient. Facing current high DAP prices, willingness for bulk procurement remains weak. Buyers are mainly maintaining routine small-volume rigid-demand replenishment, and new-order follow-up is slow.

Overall, the DAP market this week relied on high cost support to defend its price floor, but weak off-season demand left the market lacking upward momentum. The market remained in a prolonged stalemate with prices but limited transactions.

According to FDD data, this week, the average 64% granular price index was 4,571.67, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%; the average 60% brown price index was 4,350.00, flat from last week; and the average 57% DAP price index was 4,432.50, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%.

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions

2.1 Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Industry Operating Conditions

According to FDD statistics, this week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate industry operating rate was around 57.69%, down 0.53 percentage points from last week and up 1.51 percentage points year-on-year. The MAP industry operating rate declined slightly during the week and remained above the same period last year.

2.2 Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Industry Operating Conditions

According to FDD statistics, this week, the domestic diammonium phosphate industry operating rate was around 34.85%, up 0.41 percentage points from last week and down 17.91 percentage points year-on-year. The DAP industry operating rate rose during the week but remained below the same period last year.

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trend

3.1 Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Weekly Output Trend

According to FDD statistics, this week, domestic monoammonium phosphate output was around 230,000 tonnes, down 0.95% from last week and down 1.33% year-on-year. Domestic MAP weekly output decreased during the week and remained below the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Weekly Output Trend

According to FDD statistics, this week, domestic diammonium phosphate output was around 169,400 tonnes, up 1.19% from last week and down 32.99% year-on-year. Domestic DAP weekly output increased during the week but remained below the same period last year.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend

4.1 Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trend

According to FDD statistics, this week, major port inventories in the domestic monoammonium phosphate market were around 0 tonnes, flat from last week.

4.2 Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trend

According to FDD statistics, this week, major port inventories in the domestic diammonium phosphate market were around 29,500 tonnes, flat from last week.

05 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

Monoammonium Phosphate

Looking ahead, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to remain stable at high levels in the short term. On the cost side, upstream sulfur continues to be affected by overseas geopolitical disruptions. Overseas quotations remain firm at high levels, and import cost support remains strong. In addition, phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia raw material prices continue to operate at high levels. Producers face clear pressure from overall production costs, and most manufacturers are in a loss-making state. Willingness to offer large concessions or cut prices is weak, medium- to long-term bottom support is solid, and there is no room for a deep market decline.

On the demand side, the downstream compound fertilizer industry has not yet entered the concentrated autumn fertilizer production cycle. Overall operating rates remain low, and earlier raw material inventories are sufficient. Facing high MAP quotations, buyers are mainly purchasing sporadically as needed, with limited enthusiasm for bulk locking. Grassroots distributors maintain a strong wait-and-see attitude, large-scale stocking has been postponed, and rigid-demand consumption remains limited.

As the autumn fertilizer preparation window gradually approaches, downstream factories’ raw material procurement demand is expected to recover steadily, driving marginal improvement in market transactions. However, terminal digestion is likely to be gradual, making it difficult to push prices into a unilateral sharp rise. The market is expected to remain supported mainly by structural rigid demand.

Overall, strong cost support and weak demand recovery will continue to form a two-way tug of war in the short term. The market is expected to remain in a high-level stalemate, with transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Only after downstream fertilizer preparation demand is released in a concentrated manner will the market gain slight upward momentum. A sharp rise or fall lacks substantive drivers.

Diammonium Phosphate

Looking ahead, the diammonium phosphate market is expected to continue consolidation and wait-and-see operation. On the raw material side, short-term raw material support remains rigid. Continued overseas geopolitical disruptions are affecting sulfur supply in overseas markets, keeping import costs elevated. At the same time, phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia prices remain firm, and industry production is generally in a loss-making state. Enterprises relying on externally purchased raw materials face more prominent cost pressure, and willingness to actively cut prices or sell off cargoes is extremely low. Market bottom support is firm, and room for a deep decline is largely blocked.

On the demand side, the market is currently in a fertilizer-use gap period. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are operating at low rates, earlier raw material inventories are sufficient, and buyers are only making scattered rigid-demand purchases at high DAP prices, with limited enthusiasm for bulk locking. Grassroots distributors remain strongly wait-and-see and generally operate with light inventories. Large-scale stocking has not yet started, and market transactions lack volume.

As the autumn sowing fertilizer preparation window gradually approaches, demand for base fertilizer in northern field crops will be released steadily, and downstream factories’ raw material procurement pace will also recover. Market rigid-demand support is expected to strengthen gradually.

Going forward, the DAP market will remain in a two-way tug of war between strong cost support and weak off-season demand. In the short term, the market is expected to remain in a high-level stalemate, with transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Only after autumn fertilizer preparation demand is released in a concentrated manner, together with support from export-channel diversion, will the market gain slight upward momentum. A sharp short-term rise or fall lacks substantive drivers.

06 Sulfur Market Analysis

6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

This week, the domestic sulfur market generally showed an initial decline followed by recovery, with regional divergence and volatile performance. Repeated U.S.-Iran geopolitical friction was the core disruptive variable throughout the week. Combined with supply-demand competition in domestic and overseas markets, the pace of market gains and losses differed clearly.

Overseas Middle Eastern producers continued to raise monthly contract prices, but overseas buyers resisted high prices, leaving transactions in stalemate. Domestic regional trends diverged significantly. The Northeast market continued to weaken due to the downstream off-season and concentrated long-term contract supply. Northwest China, Shandong, and East China benefited from tighter local supply caused by refinery maintenance, while rising geopolitical risk-avoidance sentiment supported a phased recovery. Port spot prices remained flat at high levels.

Overall downstream demand remained in the off-season. Enterprises were under pressure and controlled production, only carrying out scattered rigid-demand replenishment. High-priced cargoes faced obvious transaction resistance, and market trading volume remained difficult to expand. Geopolitical sentiment only generated short-term pulse-like market moves and could not reverse the underlying weak supply-demand tone.

Looking ahead, uncertainty in the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation is still present in the short term and will continue to bring sentiment-driven volatility to the market. Domestic refinery maintenance supports tight local supply, while high overseas import costs provide a floor. Sulfur prices are unlikely to see a sharp decline, and the overall market is expected to remain in a high-level narrow-range fluctuation pattern.

In the medium to long term, off-season demand from downstream phosphate fertilizer and chemical industries is unlikely to recover quickly. High prices continue to suppress downstream operating rates and procurement willingness. If geopolitical conflict does not escalate further, the geopolitical premium may gradually fade. Combined with gradual arrivals of imported cargoes later, loose supply-demand pressure may re-emerge, and the market may face expectations of volatile pullback. The core factors to monitor are the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, the progress of domestic refinery maintenance, and the launch pace of downstream fertilizer preparation demand.

According to FDD data, on July 10, the domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur price was 8,900.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was 8,880.00, flat from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was 8,850.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was 8,830.00, flat from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was 9,030.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 8,905.00, flat from the previous working day.

07 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to FDD statistics, this week, major port inventories in the domestic sulfur market were around 735,000 tonnes, up 7,100 tonnes from last week, an increase of 0.98% week-on-week.

08 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, China’s sulfur sample output was 189,100 tonnes, with a capacity utilization rate of 44.50%, down 0.69 percentage points from last week.

8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, East China sulfur sample weekly output was 25,000 tonnes, down 4,500 tonnes from last week. Capacity utilization was 25.94%, down 4.67 percentage points from last week. East China weekly output accounted for 13% of national total output.

8.3 East China Capacity Utilization Rate

According to FDD statistics, this week, the domestic sulfur operating rate in East China was around 25.94%.

8.4 Solid Sulfur Port Arrivals

According to FDD statistics, this week, July solid sulfur arrivals at major ports nationwide were temporarily estimated at around 215,000 tonnes.