Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Review: Weak Downstream Demand, Prices Undergoing Downward Adjustment

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Analysis:
According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, the average price index for 55% powdered MAP was 3399.50, a decrease of 38.50 from last week, down 1.12%. The average price index for 55% granular MAP was 3400.00, remaining stable from last week. The average price index for 58% powdered MAP was 3633.33, a decrease of 3.33, down 0.09%.

This week, MAP market prices continued to be mostly stable with minor declines. Most enterprises temporarily halted quotations, and prices remained stable. On the factory side, pending orders continued to decrease, with new transactions being sluggish, leading to increased sales pressure. Current quotations were stable, with many enterprises pausing quotations and transactions being negotiated case-by-case. Traders sold at lower prices, resulting in inverted prices compared to factory prices. Some factories covertly reduced prices to accept new orders, leading to disorder in market prices. On the market side, the weak market trend continued, with the focal point of transactions declining and actual transactions maintained through negotiations. Demand-side was affected by unstable raw material prices, with limited follow-up, low enthusiasm for agricultural fertilizer preparation, and slow reserve demand. Industrial downstream compound fertilizer demand appeared weak, with signs of decreased production and limited raw material purchasing.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Analysis:
According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, the average price index for 64% granular DAP was 3880.00, remaining stable from last week. The average price index for 60% brown DAP was 3476.00, a decrease of 96.00, down 2.69%. The average price index for 57% DAP was 3590.00, a decrease of 7.50, down 0.21%.

This week, DAP market prices underwent a slight downward adjustment, with the market atmosphere appearing somewhat stagnant. On the enterprise side, current quotations remained stable, continuing to execute pre-received orders. Many paused quotations and accepting orders, with few covertly adjusting prices. Actual transaction prices were maintained through negotiations, with traders' sales being average and a strong intent to hold prices. On the market side, the DAP market atmosphere remained subdued, with traders' quotations still higher than factory prices, leading to a wait-and-see attitude downstream. On the supply side, market arrivals were still insufficient. Some plants were scheduled for maintenance in the latter part of the month, causing a narrow decline in industry operation rates and current supply tension. On the demand side, agricultural winter storage market progression was slow, with weak performance; industrial downstream purchasing atmosphere remained average, maintaining limited just-in-time purchasing.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operation:

Domestic MAP Industry Operation:
According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, the domestic MAP industry's operating rate was about 59.19%, a decrease of 0.08% from last week, and an increase of 2.37% year-on-year. The MAP industry operating rate slightly declined this week but remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic DAP Industry Operation:
According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, the domestic DAP industry's operating rate was about 53.44%, a decrease of 1.25% from last week, and an increase of 6.32% year-on-year. The DAP industry operating rate slightly declined this week but remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends:

Domestic MAP Weekly Production Trends:
According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, domestic MAP production was about 231,200 tons, a decrease of 0.13% from last week, and an increase of 3.08% year-on-year. The domestic MAP weekly production slightly declined this week but remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic DAP Weekly Production Trends:
According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, domestic DAP production was about 268,500 tons, a decrease of 2.29% from last week, and an increase of 14.50% year-on-year. The domestic DAP weekly production slightly declined this week but remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trends:
According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, domestic DAP market main port inventory was about 211,100 tons, remaining stable from last week, and up 17.02% year-on-year.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Forecast:

MAP:
In summary, the current MAP market prices appear disordered, with weak support from raw material benefits, a low market purchasing atmosphere, and a low likelihood of significant price changes. It is expected that next week, MAP market prices will continue to maintain a stable to slightly declining trend.

DAP:
In summary, under the support of reduced market supply, enterprises hold pending orders, maintaining firm prices. However, the wait-and-see attitude in downstream purchasing persists, limiting high-price transactions. It is expected that next week, DAP market prices will continue to undergo stagnant adjustments.