Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Review: Weakening Raw Material Support, Market Shows Fatigue

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

Phosphate Fertilizer Price Analysis:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): According to Feidoodoo data calculations: This week, the 55% powder price index averaged 3143.75, a decrease of 61.75 from last week, down 1.93% week-on-week; the 55% granule price index averaged 3250.00, down 30.00 from last week, a 0.91% decrease week-on-week; the 58% powder price index averaged 3383.33, down 56.67 from last week, a 1.65% decrease week-on-week.

This week, MAP market prices continued a trend of mostly stability with slight decreases. Market shipments were poor, with most quotes running steadily. On the enterprise side, there were only a few new transactions, with increasing sales pressure. Some enterprises adjusted their factory prices downwards or implemented related policies, receiving only a few orders. In the market, the trend remained weak, with a low trading atmosphere and pervasive wait-and-see sentiment, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated. On the supply side, enterprise operation and daily production continued to decline from last week, affected by the depressed market. Some enterprises started to run at reduced loads, with some planning maintenance at the end of the month. On the demand side, demand was poor, with weak downstream needs and insufficient follow-up on new compound fertilizer orders, leading to slow sales and increased sales pressure. Factory operating rates continued to decline, with weak enthusiasm for raw material procurement.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): According to Feidoodoo data calculations: This week, the mainstream 64% granule price index averaged 3855.00, down 5.00 from last week, a 0.13% decrease week-on-week; the 60% brown price index remained stable at 3450.00; the 57% DAP price index averaged 3522.50, down 11.00 from last week, a 0.31% decrease week-on-week.

This week, DAP market prices continued a trend of mostly stability with slight decreases. The wait-and-see sentiment among traders did not diminish. On the enterprise side, factory prices remained stable, with businesses mostly executing partial shipments for orders, and current pending deliveries were satisfactory. Traders lacked confidence, with some regions flexibly adjusting shipment prices, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated on a case-by-case basis. In the market, the trading atmosphere remained poor, with the trend continuing weak and prices exploring lower levels. On the supply side, enterprise operation and daily production slightly increased from last week, with overall supply showing little change from the previous period. On the demand side, market demand performed poorly, with strong bearish sentiment among traders, low corn prices leading to lackluster enthusiasm among farmers for purchasing fertilizers, and industrial downstream compound fertilizer enterprises operating cautiously, with limited just-in-time follow-up and an average trading atmosphere.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operation Status:

Domestic MAP Industry Operation Status:

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: This week, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was about 49.85%, down 0.43% from last week, a decrease of 8.39% year-on-year; the MAP industry operating rate decreased this week, continuing to be lower than the same period last year.

Domestic DAP Industry Operation Status:

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: This week, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was about 55.73%, up 0.90% from last week, an increase of 8.96% year-on-year; the DAP industry operating rate increased this week, continuing to be higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends:

Domestic MAP Weekly Production Trends:

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: This week, domestic MAP production was about 194,700 tons, down 0.87% from last week, a decrease of 12.34% year-on-year; domestic MAP weekly production fell this week, continuing to be lower than the same period last year.

Domestic DAP Weekly Production Trends:

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: This week, domestic DAP production was about 268,300 tons, down 1.63% from last week, an increase of 15.25% year-on-year; domestic DAP weekly production increased this week, continuing to be higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends:

Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trends:

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: This week, domestic MAP market major port inventory was about 12,000 tons, stable from last week, a decrease of 91.30% year-on-year.

Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trends:

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: This week, domestic DAP market major port inventory was about 42,200 tons, stable from last week, a decrease of 75.51% year-on-year.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Future Predictions:

MAP: Overall, the current MAP market shipments are poor, with bland downstream demand and a continuing weak trend in transactions. Short-term demand is unlikely to improve, and it is expected that next week's MAP market prices will continue to be mostly stable with slight decreases.

DAP: Overall, current DAP factories are mostly executing pending deliveries, with the DAP market transactions essentially at a standstill, limited downstream demand follow-up, poor shipments, weakening cost support, and difficult market operation. It is expected that next week's DAP market prices will continue to be mostly stable with slight decreases.