Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Sharp Declines in Raw Material Sulfur Prices Keep the Phosphate Fertilizer Market in Weak Consolidation (August 28, 2026)

1. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Price Analysis

MAP:

The domestic MAP market continued to move lower weakly this week. On the cost side, US-Iran military risks eased temporarily this week, but economic pressure continued to intensify and long-term uncertainty remains. Domestic sulfur prices fell sharply; port inventories recovered somewhat but remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices consolidated weakly; and phosphate rock prices remained under pressure at high levels. Cost support weakened, affecting market sentiment. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers mainly used raw materials stocked earlier and maintained only limited rigid-demand procurement. New-order transactions were limited, market sentiment remained cautious and deadlocked, and demand continued to be weak. Overall, the MAP market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of autumn fertilizer procurement by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the pass-through impact of geopolitical developments on costs.

According to Feidoodoo data, the average 55% powder MAP price index was 4,368.75 this week, down 24.00 from last week, or 0.55%; the average 55% granular MAP price index was 4,425.00, down 5.00, or 0.11%; and the average 58% powder MAP price index was 4,676.67, down 3.33, or 0.07%.

DAP:

The domestic DAP market continued to consolidate this week. On the cost side, US-Iran military risks eased temporarily this week, but economic pressure continued to intensify and long-term uncertainty remains. Domestic sulfur prices fell sharply; port inventories recovered somewhat but remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices consolidated weakly; and phosphate rock prices remained under pressure at high levels. Multiple raw material prices weakened, affecting market sentiment. On the demand side, there has been no material recovery. Market deliveries remain slow overall. Although the autumn fertilizer procurement window is gradually approaching and transactions have improved slightly from earlier levels, actual downstream follow-up remains limited and large-scale procurement has not yet begun. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain in a stalemate and consolidation pattern in the short term. Attention should focus on changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent export policy adjustments.

According to Feidoodoo data, the average 64% granular DAP price index was 4,571.67 this week, unchanged from last week; the average 60% brown DAP price index was 4,700.00, up 70.00 from last week, or 1.51%; and the average 57% DAP price index was 4,410.00, down 1.50 from last week, or 0.03%.

2. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Operating Rates

3.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Rate

According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was approximately 51.92% this week, down 3.63 percentage points from last week and down 12.38 percentage points year on year. The MAP operating rate declined during the week and remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Rate

According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was approximately 43.54% this week, up 0.50 percentage points from last week and down 14.73 percentage points year on year. The DAP operating rate increased during the week but remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.

3. Domestic Weekly Phosphate Fertilizer Output

3.1 Domestic Weekly MAP Output

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic MAP output was approximately 208,700 tonnes this week, down 6.54% from last week and down 18.70% year on year. Weekly MAP output declined and remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic Weekly DAP Output

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic DAP output was approximately 211,600 tonnes this week, up 1.15% from last week and down 23.17% year on year. Weekly DAP output increased but remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.

4. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventories

4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventories

According to Feidoodoo data, MAP inventories at major domestic ports were approximately zero tonnes this week, unchanged from last week.

4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventories

According to Feidoodoo data, DAP inventories at major domestic ports were approximately 29,500 tonnes this week, unchanged from last week.

5. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP: Looking ahead, the MAP market is expected to remain weak. Sulfur and sulfuric acid prices still have room to decline, and cost support continues to weaken. Downstream compound fertilizer operating rates are recovering slowly, while delayed autumn fertilizer procurement has resulted in insufficient release of rigid demand, leaving prices under modest downward pressure. However, although costs have softened, raw material prices remain relatively high by historical standards, and cost support has not completely collapsed. The real turning point will be the concentrated start of the autumn fertilizer season. Although the autumn fertilizer procurement cycle is already more than halfway through, distributors remain reluctant to take delivery because of raw material price volatility and the slow start of grassroots fertilizer demand. Large volumes of advance orders are accumulating at plants, and spot supply is being transmitted to downstream users with a clear delay. Attention should focus on the pace of concentrated grassroots distribution in early September. If terminal fertilizer demand starts and drives concentrated restocking by compound fertilizer producers, the release of rigid demand will support a gradual stabilization. If procurement is delayed further, the weak market pattern may continue. Sulfur price trends and changes in export policy also require close attention.

DAP: Looking ahead, the DAP market is highly likely to remain in a high-level stalemate, with the current difficult balance between upward and downward forces unlikely to break. Prices are currently at historically high levels, downstream absorption capacity is clearly limited, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes is generally weak. Combined with weak agricultural commodity prices, insufficient grassroots purchasing power, and a notably delayed start to autumn fertilizer procurement, downstream purchasing sentiment has become more conservative and the market lacks upward momentum. Downside room is also limited. Although sulfur prices have softened, port inventories are at their lowest level in nearly a decade, while Middle East geopolitical factors continue to disrupt shipping. Sulfur prices are therefore expected to remain volatile at high levels. Phosphate rock supply has contracted materially, and producers' total production costs remain high. The industry as a whole is still loss-making, leaving cost support solid. Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term. Attention should focus on whether autumn fertilizer procurement can start materially in early September and on the pace and strength of terminal demand release.

6. Sulfur Market Analysis

6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

The domestic sulfur market continued to move lower overall this week. The weekly decline accelerated further, with granular sulfur at ports and domestic liquid sulfur weakening in tandem. Trading remained subdued, and domestic and overseas markets diverged significantly. In the domestic port market, the wait-and-see attitude of participants did not improve after the earlier correction. Traders mainly followed the market, and the market remained weak. As time passed, the waiting atmosphere intensified. Increased supply from port sellers added to market pressure, and some sellers actively lowered offers to stimulate downstream restocking. However, buyers' preference for buying on rising prices rather than falling prices meant that continued declines did not attract follow-up buying. Trading remained weak and prices continued to search for lower levels.

On the regional market side, liquid sulfur prices in Shandong fell from high levels this week. The market remained in a high-level stalemate early in the week, but sentiment weakened quickly thereafter and prices entered a downward channel. The core driver of the decline was weak downstream demand. Downstream processors faced heavy cost pressure and their margins were significantly compressed. At the same time, refinery units in the region restarted and imported cargo arrivals increased, adding to supply. Downstream purchasing strategies changed, with buyers abandoning proactive restocking and purchasing only small volumes for rigid demand. Buying interest declined noticeably. Auctions of sulfur by local refineries continued to weaken, unsold lots increased, and transaction benchmarks moved lower as weak demand persisted.

Sulfur in East China also moved lower weakly from high levels, while downstream rigid demand remained low. Large local refineries completed maintenance and resumed shipments, increasing supply. However, downstream purchasing sentiment remained cautious. Combined with the transmission of weaker conditions from the Yangtze River port market, regional liquid sulfur prices weakened accordingly. Overall, the sulfur market is receiving additional supply while downstream demand is recovering only slowly, leaving the market without strong upward support. Attention should remain on shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz, the arrival pace of imported cargoes, changes in domestic refinery output, and increases in operating rates and raw material restocking in the downstream sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer industries.

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 28, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,500.00 yuan/tonne, down 1,200 yuan/tonne from last week; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,480.00 yuan/tonne, down 1,200 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,450.00 yuan/tonne, down 1,200 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,430.00 yuan/tonne, down 1,200 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was priced at 7,700.00 yuan/tonne, down 1,400 yuan/tonne; and liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 7,225.00 yuan/tonne, down 1,530 yuan/tonne.

7. Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to Feidoodoo data, sulfur inventories at major domestic ports were approximately 951,000 tonnes this week, up 70,900 tonnes from last week, or 8.06%.

8. Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

China's sample sulfur output was 191,100 tonnes this week, with capacity utilization at 44.96%, down 0.61 percentage points from last week.

8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

East China's sample sulfur output was 26,600 tonnes this week, unchanged from last week. Capacity utilization was 27.65%, also unchanged from last week. East China accounted for 14% of national sulfur output.

8.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to Feidoodoo data, sulfur industry operating rates in East China were approximately 27.65% this week.

8.4 Solid Sulfur Arrivals

According to Feidoodoo data, planned imports of solid sulfur at major domestic ports in August stood provisionally at 123,000 tonnes as of this week.