Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Stable Market Operation During Industry Conference with Sufficient Factory Ready-to-Ship Stocks

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

• Market Price Analysis:
• Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index for 55% powdered MAP is 3475.00, up by 30.00 or 0.87% from last week; the average price index for 55% granular MAP is 3400.00, up by 120.00 or 3.66%; and for 58% powdered MAP, the average price index is 3616.67, up by 40.00 or 1.12%. This week, MAP market prices were mostly stable. Factories continued fulfilling pre-received orders with a significant backlog, with most December orders filled and enough inventory to last about a month. With no sales pressure, the market sentiment remained strong, with some enterprises still raising factory prices and limiting new orders. Supply-wise, the supply is relatively tight, with daily production stable but low, and the spot market facing a shortage of goods, making market inquiries challenging. Demand-wise, agricultural needs are steady with the winter storage market in its mid-phase, and continuous follow-up purchases, but cautiousness is growing due to rising MAP prices. Industrial needs are catered to by downstream compound fertilizer enterprises, purchasing based on their raw material inventory, adopting a wait-and-see approach.
• Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): This week, the average price index for 64% granular DAP is 3879.00, up by 7.33 or 0.19%; for 60% brown DAP, the average price index is 3760.00, up by 90.00 or 2.45%; and for 57% content DAP, the average price index is 3598.00, up by 48.00 or 1.35%. DAP market prices slightly increased this week. Companies are still fulfilling some port and pre-received orders, with the domestic market releasing limited quantities, mostly limiting or pausing new orders, and focusing on fulfilling previous export orders. The market received a limited supply, with stockholders reluctant to sell, making actual transactions negotiable. Supply-wise, the domestic market faces a tight supply, especially in North China, with stagnant market transactions. Demand-wise, downstream winter storage needs continue, with traders operating cautiously and awaiting clear guidance from the phosphate compound fertilizer conference, creating an overall atmosphere of wait-and-see. Raw material-wise, the synthetic ammonia market is softening, domestic sulfur prices are rising, and the phosphate rock market is stable with narrow fluctuations, providing strong cost support for DAP.

Future Market Predictions:

• MAP: Currently, MAP factories have a large backlog of ready-to-ship stocks, and the tight supply situation continues. With the market's focus shifting to the current industry conference for guidance, it is expected that next week's MAP market prices will continue to be strong, and it's crucial to follow the industry conference dynamics.
• DAP: The domestic DAP market remains tight, supported by export orders and the ongoing phosphate compound fertilizer conference, keeping prices firm. It's anticipated that next week's DAP market prices will continue to operate at high levels, awaiting guidance from the industry conference.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operations:

• MAP Industry: This week, the domestic MAP industry's operating rate is about 58.02%, stable from last week and up 17.08% year-over-year.
• DAP Industry: The domestic DAP industry's operating rate is about 49.81%, stable from last week and up 9.83% year-over-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends:

• MAP Weekly Production: Approximately 226,600 tons, stable from last week and up 40.40% year-over-year.
• DAP Weekly Production: Approximately 250,300 tons, stable from last week and up 25.78% year-over-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends:

• MAP Port Inventory: About 45,100 tons, stable from last week and down 67.46% year-over-year.
• DAP Port Inventory: About 247,200 tons, stable from last week and up 11.86% year-over-year.