Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Strong Order Intake Continues, Phosphate Fertilizer Prices Maintain Upward Trend

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

Price Analysis of Phosphate Fertilizers：

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): According to Feidoodoo data calculations: This week, the average price index for 55% powdered form was 3278.75, up by 82.50 from last week, a 2.58% increase; the average price index for 55% granular form remained stable at 2820.00; the average price index for 58% powdered form was 3470.67, up by 78.67 from last week, a 2.32% increase.

This week, the market price for MAP continued its firm and upward trend. On the production side, most MAP factories have more than a month's worth of orders waiting to be dispatched, potentially lasting until the end of November or early December, with many factories pausing on quoting new prices, taking orders only for core downstream customers in limited quantities. With no pressure on shipments and backed by pending orders, the factories' willingness to maintain prices is evident, and the current sentiment is positive. In terms of supply, the market is becoming tighter with insufficient goods available for supply, traders hold limited stocks, showing a reluctance to sell, and low-priced market supplies are hard to find. On the demand side, the Northeast market followed up with inquiries and just-in-time purchases, with a generally positive atmosphere, while the downstream purchasing attitude remains cautious.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): According to Feidoodoo data calculations: This week, the average price index for 64% granular form was 3807.33, up by 20.00 from last week, a 0.53% increase; the average price index for 60% brown form was 3500.00, up by 158.00 from last week, a 4.73% increase; the average price index for 57% DAP was 3465.00, up by 89.00 from last week, a 2.64% increase.

This week, the market price for DAP adjusted upward, with narrow range price increases in the market quotes. On the corporate side, businesses continue to fulfill pre-received export orders, with exports still providing support and many businesses pausing on quoting prices and payments, focusing on dispatching goods for collection at ports. In terms of supply, the market continues with low operation rates, leading to a shortage of goods and relative tightness in the market; the low supply situation persists. On the demand side, due to the delay in the application of fertilizer for autumn wheat, the autumn market is currently in its final stage, and additionally, winter storage is slowly following up, with demand benefits taking the lead. Regarding raw materials, the limited mining of phosphate rock and tense supply, along with high prices, and narrow fluctuations in the prices of sulfur and synthetic ammonia, continue to provide strong cost support.

Market Forecast:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): With good sales and low supply, coupled with the Northeast market gradually following up, it is expected that the market price for MAP will continue to maintain a steady and upward trend next week.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Currently, the DAP market is supported by export orders and tight supply, with continuous strong demand and high cost support, and market positives dominating. Overall, it is expected that the market price for DAP will continue to operate at high levels next week.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operation:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Industry Operation
This week, the operational rate of the domestic MAP industry was about 54.26%, an increase of 0.82% from last week, and a 12.89% increase year-on-year; the operational rate of the MAP industry increased slightly during the week, still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Industry Operation
This week, the operational rate of the domestic DAP industry was about 47.17%, a decrease of 2.31% from last week, and an 8.15% increase year-on-year; the operational rate of the DAP industry continued to decline slightly during the week, still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trend:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Weekly Production Trend
This week, the domestic production of MAP was about 211,900 tons, a decrease of 2.40% from last week, and a 29.76% increase year-on-year; domestic MAP weekly production fell within the week but remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Weekly Production Trend
This week, the domestic production of DAP was about 237,000 tons, a decrease of 2.87% from last week, and a 22.04% increase year-on-year; domestic DAP weekly production continued to decline slightly within the week but remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Port Inventory Trend
This week, the main port inventory of MAP in the domestic market was about 53,100 tons, an increase of 10.40% from last week, and a 61.74% decrease year-on-year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Port Inventory Trend
This week, the main port inventory of DAP in the domestic market was 212,100 tons, a decrease of 9.01% from last week, and an 8.89% decrease year-on-year.