September 2 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Phosphate Fertilizer Market Remains Weak as High Costs and Weak Demand Continue to Compete

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic 55% powder MAP index stood at 4,287.50 on September 2, down 0.81% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,425.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index was 4,633.33, down 0.71% from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic MAP market continued to decline weakly today. On the producer side, most plants continued to execute earlier orders. Market prices kept falling, some plants successively released new quotations, traders continued to lower their offers, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment showed no material improvement. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers continued to consume previously stocked raw materials and maintained only limited rigid-demand purchases. Buying interest was low, new-order transactions were limited, market sentiment remained cautious and deadlocked, and demand was still weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices fluctuated higher; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market was broadly stable, although prices stayed within a historically high range. Cost-side prices rebounded somewhat and continued to provide strong support to producers. Overall, the MAP market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of autumn fertilizer stocking by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the pass-through effect of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, the mainstream domestic 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,563.33 on September 2, down 0.18% from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,700.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index was 4,375.00, down 0.40% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic DAP market continued weak consolidation today. On the producer side, some producers focused on shipping previously pending orders and maintained firm prices, while actual transactions continued to be negotiated. On the market side, trading activity remained low, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. On the demand side, demand has not shown a substantive recovery, and the overall pace of product movement remains slow. Although the autumn fertilizer stocking window is gradually approaching and transactions have improved slightly from earlier levels, downstream follow-through remains limited and large-scale procurement has not started. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices fluctuated higher; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market was stable. Raw material costs continued to provide strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on September 2, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,600 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,580 yuan/tonne, up 80 yuan/tonne; lump and powder sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,550 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; lump and powder sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,530 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was 7,700 yuan/tonne, unchanged; and liquid sulfur in East China was 7,525 yuan/tonne, up 150 yuan/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic sulfur market generally fluctuated higher today, with port and refinery prices both testing upward to varying degrees. The market is currently experiencing the combined effect of multiple bullish factors. On the port side, changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation prompted market participants to adjust their wait-and-see positions. Port inquiries and buying interest strengthened notably. At the same time, available cargoes continued to tighten, supply increases remained limited, and holders showed a strong willingness to support prices, lifting the price center for granular sulfur at ports. Yangtze River ports, as the main distribution hubs, showed particularly strong performance, while surrounding ports also followed higher.
On the refinery side, the liquid sulfur market in Shandong continued to rise, with active auctions for independent refinery supply and further gains in transaction prices. Some key refineries sharply increased their ex-factory quotations for solid and liquid sulfur, further strengthening expectations of price gains. On the supply side, domestic port inventories have recovered from earlier lows but remain low overall. Together with the slower pace of imported cargo arrivals, this has limited overall supply growth. On the demand side, downstream phosphate fertilizer producers continued to purchase for rigid demand. However, trade is still mainly based on long-term contract execution, spot-market activity has not fully recovered, and some downstream producers remain cautious and purchase only as needed.
Overall, the sulfur market is in a relatively strong pattern supported by supply contraction and rigid demand. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East geopolitical situation continues to affect supply expectations. Combined with the practical support of low inventories and the gradual release of autumn fertilizer stocking demand, the market is expected to remain volatile but firm in the short term. However, given that prices are already relatively high, downstream affordability still requires close monitoring. Attention should focus on developments in the Middle East, the pace of port arrivals and changes in downstream phosphate fertilizer operating rates.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

September 2: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Anhui was around 4,300-4,400 yuan/tonne, down.
September 2: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Northeast China was around 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 2: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Henan was around 4,250-4,350 yuan/tonne, down.
September 2: The mainstream ex-factory quotation for 55% powder MAP in Hubei was around 4,100-4,300 yuan/tonne, down.
September 2: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Jiangsu was around 4,250-4,350 yuan/tonne, down.
September 2: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Shandong was around 4,250-4,350 yuan/tonne, down.
September 2: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Sichuan was around 4,200-4,250 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 2: The ex-factory quotation for 55% powder MAP in Yunnan was around 4,150-4,200 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 2: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 60% DAP in Shaanxi was 4,700-4,750 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 2: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 64% DAP in Northeast China was 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 2: The self-pickup quotation for 57% DAP in Hebei was 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, down.
September 2: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 64% DAP in Hubei was 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 2: The self-pickup warehouse quotation for 64% DAP in Shandong was 4,850-4,950 yuan/tonne, down; the self-pickup station quotation for 57% DAP was 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.