September 3 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Market Continues to Consolidate as Firm Costs and Weak Demand Remain in Competition

 

According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic 55% powder MAP index stood at 4,287.50 on September 3, unchanged from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,425.00, unchanged. The 58% powder MAP index was 4,633.33, unchanged.

 

 

The domestic MAP market remained weak today. On the producer side, most plants continued to execute earlier orders, some plants successively released new quotations, traders continued to lower their offers, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. On the market side, subdued and deadlocked trading conditions persisted. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers continued to consume previously stocked raw materials and maintained only limited rigid-demand purchases. Buying interest was low, new-order transactions were limited, market sentiment remained cautious and deadlocked, and demand was still weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices fluctuated higher; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market was broadly stable. Cost-side prices remained high and continued to provide strong support to producers. Overall, the MAP market is expected to remain weak and move lower in the short term. Attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of autumn fertilizer stocking by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the pass-through effect of geopolitical developments on costs.

 

 

 

According to Feidoodoo data, the mainstream domestic 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,563.33 on September 3, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,700.00, unchanged. The 57% DAP index was 4,375.00, unchanged.

 

 

 

The domestic DAP market remained weak today. On the producer side, some producers focused on shipping previously pending orders and maintained firm prices, while actual transactions continued to be negotiated. On the market side, trading activity remained low, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. On the demand side, demand has not shown a substantive recovery, and the overall pace of product movement remains slow. Although the autumn fertilizer stocking window is gradually approaching, wait-and-see sentiment remains strong, downstream follow-through is limited and large-scale procurement has not started. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices fluctuated higher; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market was stable. Raw material costs continued to provide strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

 

 

 

According to Feidoodoo data, on September 3, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,700 yuan/tonne, up 100 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,680 yuan/tonne, up 100 yuan/tonne; lump and powder sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,650 yuan/tonne, up 100 yuan/tonne; lump and powder sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,630 yuan/tonne, up 100 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was 7,700 yuan/tonne, unchanged; and liquid sulfur in East China was 7,540 yuan/tonne, up 15 yuan/tonne.

 

 

 

Overall, the domestic sulfur spot market continued to operate at high levels today, with continued disruption from the US-Iran geopolitical situation remaining the market's most important variable. Repeated geopolitical developments are sustaining uncertainty on the supply side. Recent US military action against Iran again restricted vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Ballast vessels are unwilling to enter to load, while shipowners' confidence in departing after loading has also been materially affected. Persistent tensions in the Middle East, which are unlikely to ease in the short term, have directly established a strong medium- to long-term pricing environment for sulfur.

On the demand side, buyers have limited capacity to absorb high prices, although rigid demand support remains. Following the earlier sharp increase, sulfur prices are already at extremely high levels. Downstream phosphate fertilizer, sulfuric acid and fine chemical producers face heavy cost pressure. Small and medium-sized chemical producers have continued to limit output because of high-priced raw materials, leaving overall demand follow-through weak. At the same time, as the traditional September peak season for autumn fertilizer stocking begins, downstream phosphate fertilizer producers are gradually starting rigid-demand replenishment. Marginal improvement in end-user demand continues to provide some price support.

Overall, the sulfur market is in a stage of competing bullish and bearish factors, with geopolitical premiums continuing to enter the market, rigid supply tightening, high prices suppressing downstream demand and purchasing becoming more cautious. Each new development in the US-Iran situation creates sharp fluctuations in market sentiment, while navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain the key factor determining short-term market direction. Before geopolitical conflict risks are substantively removed, rigid supply constraints will continue to provide downside support. However, the negative feedback effect of high prices on demand is also building, reducing willingness to chase prices higher. The market is expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. Attention should focus on the latest US-Iran developments, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the actual release of autumn fertilizer stocking demand.

 

 

 

September 3: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Anhui was around 4,300-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Northeast China was around 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Henan was around 4,250-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The mainstream ex-factory quotation for 55% powder MAP in Hubei was around 4,100-4,300 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Jiangsu was around 4,250-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Shandong was around 4,250-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Sichuan was around 4,200-4,250 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The ex-factory quotation for 55% powder MAP in Yunnan was around 4,150-4,200 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 60% DAP in Shaanxi was 4,700-4,750 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 64% DAP in Northeast China was 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The self-pickup quotation for 57% DAP in Hebei was 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, down.

September 3: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 64% DAP in Hubei was 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

September 3: The self-pickup warehouse quotation for 64% DAP in Shandong was 4,850-4,950 yuan/tonne, unchanged; the self-pickup station quotation for 57% DAP was 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.