Summary of the Monoammonium Phosphate Market in the First Quarter of 2024

Overview of China's Monoammonium Phosphate Market:
In the first quarter of 2024, the domestic price of mono ammonium phosphate showed a trend of steady and slight fluctuation. The trading was moderate, with most buyers purchasing cautiously as needed, leading to an overall bland market performance. According to Feiduoduo data, the index for 55% powder mono ammonium phosphate saw a difference of 329.38 between its lowest and highest values, a fluctuation range of 10.80%. The 55% granular index showed a difference of 250.00, fluctuating by 7.94%; and the 58% powder index had a 250.00 difference, fluctuating by 7.39%.

In January, the price of monoammonium phosphate was weak but stable. Downstream compound fertilizer factories faced sales pressure, leading to decreased operational rates and a weak enthusiasm for raw material procurement. This resulted in slow product movement and relatively low actual transaction prices, increasing sales pressure. Factories received fewer pre-orders, and the lack of new orders led to a general price decrease to secure orders, causing price confusion within the industry and an overall weak market performance. Due to the difficulty in securing new orders and moving products, many plants reduced production or shut down, leading to a low daily production rate in the industry and a weak market consolidation.

In February, the price of monoammonium phosphate remained stable before the festival and experienced a slight increase afterward. The pre-festival period saw a decline in factory and downstream operational rates due to the sluggish market, leading to reduced industry supply and transactions. After the festival, the market outlook improved, driven by export sentiment, leading to increased operational rates and daily production, with some companies adjusting their prices slightly upwards.

In March, the price of monoammonium phosphate was generally stable with minor adjustments, maintaining fluctuation within a certain range. Early in the month, the market improved due to export sentiment, boosting confidence in transactions. However, as the month progressed, the uncertainty in export news made the market atmosphere more average, with new orders weakening and some factories pausing their quotes, leading to a stable but weak market.

Production and Operational Rates of China's Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Monoammonium Phosphate Production Analysis:
According to Feidoodoo data, from January to March 2024, China's cumulative production of monoammonium phosphate was 2.8234 million tons, an increase of 27,100 tons or 0.97% compared to the same period last year.

Operational Rate Analysis for the Monoammonium Phosphate Industry:
The average operational rate for the mono ammonium phosphate industry from January to March 2024 was 53.21%, a decrease of 8.50% compared to the same period last year.

China's Phosphate Fertilizer Import and Export Data Analysis: Monoammonium Phosphate Export Data:
According to customs data, the cumulative export volume from January to February 2024 was 99,300 tons, a decrease of 1,937,000 tons or 95.12% compared to the previous year.

Analysis of Apparent Consumption of Monoammonium Phosphate:
According to Feidoodoo data, the apparent consumption of monoammonium phosphate in China from January to February 2024 was 1.5347 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.52% compared to the same period last year.

Trend of Monoammonium Phosphate Port Inventories in China:
As of March 29, 2024, the domestic port inventory of mono ammonium phosphate was 46,300 tons, a decrease of 39,700 tons or 46.16% compared to the same period last year. The port inventory continued to run at a low level this quarter, with exports remaining limited to port accumulation.

Analysis of Upstream (Synthetic Ammonia) in the First Quarter of 2024:
In the first quarter of 2024, synthetic ammonia prices dropped and then gradually recovered, with market fluctuations centered around the Spring Festival holiday.

Before the Spring Festival, the synthetic ammonia market experienced a weak downward trend. As maintenance units restarted, industry supply increased, and companies reduced prices to secure orders. The domestic market was affected by international price declines, leading to a pessimistic atmosphere and further price reductions. After the holiday, the market trended upwards, with an improved transaction atmosphere, leading to price adjustments and increased supply. However, as prices rose, downstream resistance increased, leading to pressure on factories and a subsequent market adjustment.

Market Forecast for Monoammonium Phosphate in the Second Quarter of 2024:Cost Aspect: Synthetic ammonia prices fluctuate, while phosphate rock prices remain high, providing strong cost support.
Supply Aspect: The industry's operational rate and daily production are on the rise, with companies focusing on maintaining supply.
Demand Aspect: As spring planting concludes, agricultural demand enters a lull period. Downstream compound fertilizer factories continue to purchase raw materials as needed, with demand gradually following and a wait-and-see approach prevailing.

Overall, with sufficient market supply and steady demand, the mono ammonium phosphate market is expected to remain stable in the next quarter.