The Urea Market May Improve In November

Recently, the daily output of domestic urea fluctuates from 148,000 tons to 155,000 tons, and the overall performance of the supply side is loose. Judging from the enterprise start-up, at present, the overall production in Shanxi has been reduced, and the installation in Jincheng has been postponed. Last week, two new enterprises in Xinjiang stopped for maintenance, and some enterprises in Shandong reduced production.According to incomplete statistics, there were 7 enterprises that stopped, reduced or stopped urea plants last week, which totally affected the daily output of about 11,000 tons. At present, although the market has not received the news of centralized parking and overhaul of gas heads, some enterprises have already had overhaul plans. Therefore, the operating rate of gas head in November is still expected to decline. In addition, the recent local epidemic situation in China is aggravated, and whether it can affect the construction also needs attention.Recently, the average operating rate of major compound fertilizer enterprises in China has continued to decline. As of last Friday, the average operating rate of domestic major enterprises was 27.82%, down 3.17% from last week. It is understood that with the rebound of urea price, some compound fertilizer enterprises have started purchasing mode, and some plans will start in the middle and late November. From the purchasing situation, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plant will rise in the later period.From the news point of view, it is recently rumored that gas supply enterprises may raise the price in November on the basis of the original natural gas price, and the specific amount may increase by 2-3 gross. Affected by this, gas head enterprises may have the possibility of reducing negative production. However, no official document has been issued yet, and it remains to be seen whether the specific price increase and negative reduction will be achieved.From the perspective of coal, the domestic coal market has fluctuated steadily recently. During the 20th century, the security inspection in various places remained at a high pressure, and some areas were in a silent state due to the epidemic situation. Coal transportation and supply were greatly affected, and the coal supply in the producing areas tightened, which still supported the coal price, and the market fluctuated. There is still support for urea prices in the short term.On the whole, the narrow rebound in prices at the end of the month once again stimulated the enthusiasm of the market to buy. It is expected that the downstream compound fertilizer plant will start, and there will be a certain demand for urea. In some areas of East China, the wax dressing fertilizer reserve may be opened in the middle and late November, and the winter reserve in Northeast China will continue. Affected by the epidemic situation, the shipment was delayed locally, and the follow-up mainly focused on issuing orders. Gas enterprises or negative production, etc., have alleviated the current high inventory pressure of enterprises to some extent. While the coal price is firm, which strongly supports the urea price. After the demand shows signs of recovery, the urea price may rise in stages in November.