Urea Daily Review: Cautious Downstream Purchases, Few Market Transactions

Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, the urea small granule price index on September 6th was 2615.14, a decrease of 5.45 from the previous day, a month-on-month decrease of 0.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.24%.

Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR2401 contract opened at 2223, with a high of 2236, a low of 2185, a settlement price of 2212, and a closing price of 2224. The closing price fell by 3 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14%. The daily fluctuation range was 2185-2236, with a price difference of 51. The 01 contract increased by 7239 hands today, with a current position of 326108 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market price was adjusted, with many company quotes remaining stable. There was significant pressure on new order transactions, low inventory, and manufacturers were in a wait-and-see mode.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2500-2560 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2480-2630 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2580-2590 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2480-2800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2630-2700 yuan/ton. In Central China, the price of small granules fell to 2530-2750 yuan/ton, while the price of large granules remained stable at 2620-2640 yuan/ton. Prices in South China remained stable at 2650-2750 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:
On the enterprise side, most companies currently have ample pending orders to support, and favorable quotes continue to rise. In addition, some companies are still undergoing equipment maintenance shutdowns recently, and combined with previous shutdowns, the current start-up rate remains low, which is favorable for the supply side. On the market side, compound fertilizers still have autumn fertilizer preparation needs, but due to high market prices, downstream purchases are currently cautious, mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with some companies with low inventory making a small amount of essential restocking. Internationally, India released a new round of urea import tender announcements yesterday afternoon, with the tender closing on September 15th, valid quotes until September 25th, and the latest shipping date on November 14th. This round of bidding is expected to continue to affect the price changes in the domestic urea market.

Overall, although there have been continuous market news recently, the spot market still mainly focuses on cautious essential restocking. It is expected that the urea spot price will fluctuate in the short term.