Urea Daily Review: Decreased Market Demand and Price Fluctuations

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, the urea small granule price index on August 29 was 2559.68, a decrease of 6.36 from yesterday, down 0.25% from the previous day, and up 5.55% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

The opening price of the urea UR2401 contract was 2200, with the highest price being 2210, the lowest 2109, the settlement price 2148, and the closing price 2145. The closing price fell by 98 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, a drop of 4.37%. The day's fluctuation ranged from 2109 to 2210, with a difference of 101. Today, the 01 contract reduced its position by 1459 hands, with a current position of 316134 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market price was largely stable with minor changes. Downstream demand was weak, and some enterprises with higher prices slightly reduced their quotations, while others maintained stable prices while fulfilling orders.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2450-2520 yuan/ton. In the North China region, prices fell to 2400-2600 yuan/ton. In the Northwest, prices dropped to 2500-2510 yuan/ton. In the Southwest, prices declined to 2400-2800 yuan/ton. In the East China region, prices remained at 2540-2620 yuan/ton. In Central China, small granule prices dropped to 2480-2700 yuan/ton, while large granules remained at 2550-2580 yuan/ton. Prices in the South China region fell to 2620-2680 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

On the supply side, some enterprises are currently undergoing equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in daily production and a reduction in market circulation. On the demand side, the domestic market is currently in an off-season, slowing high-priced purchases. The demand has not shown significant improvement, and the downstream is mainly observing. Regarding market sentiment, the current market overall is in a stalemate. With the continuous decline in international prices, support for the domestic market is weakening, and downstream is buying cautiously, with the market mainly in a wait-and-see state.

Overall, while there are some favorable factors in the supply side of the current urea market, the bearish demand side influences it. It's expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate in the short term.