Urea Daily Review: Downstream demand weakens, transaction atmosphere remains tepid

Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to data from Feidoodoo, on October 9th, the small granule urea price index was 2487.27, a decrease of 10.91 from the previous day, down 0.44% month-on-month, and down 3.45% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR2401 contract opening price was 2118, highest price 2182, lowest price 2104, settlement price 2145, closing price 2162, an increase of 11 from the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.51%. The full-day fluctuation range was 2104-2182, with a price difference of 78. The 01 contract increased by 14,956 hands today, with a current position of 304,028 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market price continued its downward trend. Currently, the overall market supply is at a high level, downstream purchasing is cautious, and the market trading atmosphere remains tepid.

Specifically, the price in the Northeast region is stable at 2510-2550 yuan/ton. The North China region price has fallen to 2270-2450 yuan/ton. The Northwest region price is stable at 2450-2460 yuan/ton. The Southwest region price is stable at 2350-2800 yuan/ton. The East China region price has fallen to 2370-2450 yuan/ton. The price of small granules in Central China has fallen to 2370-2640 yuan/ton, and large granules are stable at 2470-2510 yuan/ton. The price in the South China region has fallen to 2530-2640 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:
On the supply side, the current maintenance facilities are still gradually restarting, and new capacity is also being released, so the market supply continues to remain high. For businesses, they are mainly fulfilling orders received before the festival, and in the current market situation, there is a scarcity of new orders. Most businesses with a small number of orders are gradually reducing their ex-factory prices to attract new orders. On the demand side, downstream demand is weakening, with a lower willingness to restock and a wait-and-see attitude. On the cost side, the current upstream synthetic ammonia price is also gradually falling slightly, synchronously affecting the urea price. The upstream coal price is relatively strong, with port coal quotations continuously adjusted upwards after the holiday.

In conclusion, given the current market status, there is still some room for a decrease in urea prices, so it is expected that the urea market price will mainly continue to decline in the short term.