Urea Daily Review: Enterprise Backlog Supports, Noticeable Increase in Agricultural Stockpiling

Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to data calculated by Feiduoduo, on January 4th, the urea small particle price index was 2408.64, an increase of 9.55 from the previous day, up 0.40% month-on-month, and down 13.42% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:
Today, the urea UR405 contract opened at 2200, with a high of 2224, a low of 2152, a settlement price of 2185, and a closing price of 2159. The closing price decreased by 15 compared to the previous day's settlement price, down 0.69%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2152-2224. The Shandong area basis for the 05 contracts was 181, and the 05 contract reduced positions by 9287 hands today, with a current open interest of 160,300 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market price continued its slight upward trend. Recently, the market atmosphere has been positive, with a substantial amount of orders being received by enterprises in various regions. Currently, supported by pending orders, the factory ex-factory prices have been marginally adjusted upwards.
Specifically, prices in the Northeast region rose to 2370-2420 RMB/ton. In North China, prices increased to 2180-2420 RMB/ton. In Northwest China, prices rose to 2350-2360 RMB/ton. In Southwest China, prices remained stable at 2350-2800 RMB/ton. In East China, prices rose to 2320-2390 RMB/ton. In Central China, prices for small and medium-sized particles rose to 2320-2550 RMB/ton, and large particles rose to 2440-2460 RMB/ton. In South China, prices increased to 2460-2520 RMB/ton.

Future Market Prediction:
From the factory perspective, the recent pre-sales situation has been favorable, with each factory having a certain amount of pending orders and no sales pressure. Some enterprises have stopped receiving orders and raised their prices, leading to stable and upward price adjustments. It is expected that the market price will continue to remain stable. In terms of the market, recent transactions have improved. After low-price orders, prices have slightly increased, and the market is appropriately following suit. On the supply side, this week's factory operations have slightly increased compared to last week, with production also rising, but overall supply remains low. On the demand side, although downstream purchasing has slowed compared to the previous days, the continuous price rise in recent days has driven the buying sentiment, leading to a significant increase in agricultural stockpiling and gradually emerging market demand.
Overall, the urea market's trading atmosphere has noticeably improved, with enterprises holding a certain amount of pending orders. Low-priced goods are selling well in the market. It is expected that urea market prices will continue to consolidate in the short term, with the upward trend slowing down.