Urea Daily Review: Factory Quotations Continue to Rise, New Order Transactions Significantly Decrease

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on January 31st, the urea small granule price index was 2260.45, an increase of 0.68 from the previous day, a month-on-month increase of 0.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.76%.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the urea UR405 contract opened at 2115, with a high of 2115, a low of 2076, a settlement price of 2090, and a closing price of 2082. The closing price decreased by 49 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, a month-on-month decrease of 2.30%, with the day's fluctuation range between 2076-2115; the Shandong region's basis for the 05 contract is 108; the 05 contract decreased by 2065 hands today, with current holdings at 175,000 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market prices slightly increased, with enterprise quotations mostly stable with minor adjustments, and current prices mostly undergoing slight range adjustments under the support of pending shipments.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2190-2270 yuan/ton. Prices in the North China region decreased to 2040-2280 yuan/ton. Prices in the East China region increased to 2180-2250 yuan/ton. Prices in the South China region increased to 2350-2400 yuan/ton. In Central China, small and medium granule prices decreased to 2190-2380 yuan/ton, while large granule prices increased to 2250-2320 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2210-2220 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region increased to 2230-2600 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory perspective, some manufacturers have already completed the pre-holiday orders for the Spring Festival, with current quotations holding steady with slight increases; some factories with insufficient pre-received orders continue to accept low-price orders, with prices mostly stable. Today's new order transactions decreased compared to previous days, making it difficult to continue the price increase. From the market perspective, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the market transaction atmosphere was better, and shipments continued to follow up, but as prices slightly increased in recent days, the market follow-up pace slowed, sentiment turned cautious, and the current transaction atmosphere weakened compared to earlier. On the supply side, previously shut-down facilities gradually resumed production, and industry supply incrementally increased, but due to significant market shipments in recent days, spot supply was slightly tight compared to the volume of orders. On the demand side, recent demand followed mainly agricultural shipments, with most having already completed market purchases, and sentiment turned weakly downward under the influence of rising prices.

Overall, the urea market has a high volume of transactions, with spot supply appearing tight, supporting an upward market trend. The urea market prices are expected to remain mostly stable with minor adjustments in the short term, with a firm market operation.