Urea Daily Review: Favorable Supply and Demand, Prices Adjusted Upwards Again

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on September 14th, the urea small granule price index was 2602.86, an increase of 8.64 from yesterday, up 0.33% month-on-month, and up 1.65% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's urea UR2401 contract opened at 2214, with a high of 2243, a low of 2188, a settlement price of 2220, and a closing price of 2220. The closing price increased by 53 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 2.45% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range was 2188-2243, with a price difference of 55. The 01 contract reduced its position by 14,308 lots today, with a current position of 333,680 lots.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market price stopped falling and rose, with prices in some regions slightly increasing. Currently, urea factories are shipping steadily, and the market trend is strong.

Specifically, the price in the Northeast region remained stable at 2500-2560 yuan/ton. The price in the North China region rose to 2440-2650 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region rose to 2540-2550 yuan/ton. The price in the Southwest region remained stable at 2450-2800 yuan/ton. The price in the East China region rose to 2610-2660 yuan/ton. The price of small granules in the Central China region rose to 2550-2700 yuan/ton, while the price of large granules remained stable at 2570-2610 yuan/ton. The price in the South China region rose to 2640-2770 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

In terms of supply, enterprises are still maintaining a low inventory status, with a small amount of enterprise inventory. The daily production rate is rising slower than expected, leading to a tight market supply, which is favorable for the supply side. On the enterprise side, some enterprises still have pending orders, the overall market supply is tight, and the willingness of enterprises to reduce prices has weakened, prompting price increases. In terms of market demand, there is still a rigid demand in the market. The downstream compound fertilizer production has a strong demand for urea, but the enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation in the agricultural market is low. Traders still resist high prices and mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

Overall, the current market supply is at a low level, and demand still exists. With the favorable support of the supply and demand sides, it is expected that the spot price of urea will be slightly adjusted upwards in the short term. The subsequent situation of maintenance device production still needs attention.