Urea Daily Review: Favorable Supply Side, Urea Prices Rise

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 31, the urea small granule price index was 2570.14, an increase of 8.18 from yesterday, up 0.32% month-on-month, and up 6.27% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

The urea UR2401 contract opened at 2270, with a high of 2304, a low of 2246, a settlement price of 2271, and a closing price of 2255. The closing price rose 22 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.99%. The entire day's fluctuation range was between 2246-2304, with a price difference of 58. The 01 contract increased its holdings by 4063 hands today, with a current position of 309447 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market price slightly adjusted upwards, with the market supply at a low level, supporting the rise in enterprise prices.

Specifically, the price in the Northeast region is stable at 2450-2520 yuan/ton. The price in the North China region has risen to 2430-2640 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region remains stable at 2500-2510 yuan/ton. The Southwest region's price is steady at 2400-2800 yuan/ton. The price in the East China region rose to 2570-2620 yuan/ton. In Central China, the price of small granules rose to 2520-2700 yuan/ton, while large granules remained stable at 2550-2580 yuan/ton. The price in the South China region has risen to 2620-2680 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the enterprise perspective, some companies are still fulfilling previous orders and export pre-receipts, with few new orders. In terms of supply, many company facilities are currently undergoing maintenance, leading to a drop in daily production. Enterprise stock is temporarily at a low level, and market supplies are tight. Regarding demand, the domestic market is currently in a low-demand season, with a low level of market goods. Downstream sectors are looking for low-cost replenishment, and low-price orders have improved, but high-price transactions are still challenging. Traders' purchasing activity has increased. As for futures, today's futures prices have risen, forming a favorable market, improving market sentiment, and strengthening the price support intention of urea manufacturers.

Overall, current stocks are at a low level, and the supply side is favorable. However, demand support is somewhat weak, resulting in insufficient price rebound momentum. It is expected that the urea market will operate with slight fluctuations in the short term.