Urea Daily Review: Increased Demand, Prices Continue to Run High

June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM

FDD Data Group

2569

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The domestic urea market saw continued price increases on August 17, supported by delayed Indian tender timelines reducing supply pressure and boosting export optimism. The small particle urea price index reached 2,546.86, up 0.43% month-on-month and 5.22% year-on-year. Futures for contract UR2401 closed at 2,121, down 0.52% from the previous settlement, with a notable drop in open interest by 8,529 hands. Spot prices rose across most regions, particularly in North, Northwest, East, and South China, while Northeast and Southwest remained stable. Urea producers report strong pre-booked orders and ongoing export activity, though domestic transactions remain sluggish. Reduced output due to equipment issues has tightened supply, reinforcing firms' pricing power. With India's tender developments playing a key role in market sentiment, near-term prices are likely to trend upward.

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to data from Feidoodoo, on August 17th, the small particle urea price index was 2546.86, an increase of 10.91 from yesterday, up 0.43% month-on-month and up 5.22% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Urea UR2401 contract opening price: 2098, highest price: 2139, lowest price: 2067, settlement price: 2100, closing price: 2121, compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day down by 11, down 0.52% month-on-month. The whole day fluctuated between 2067-2139, with a price difference of 72; the 01 contract reduced its position by 8529 hands today, with a current position of 327071 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices continue to rise. According to news, China's supply might reach 1.1 million tons, an increase in the number of Indian markings has postponed the pressure of enterprise supply, and the domestic market price has found a new support point, with many enterprises increasing their quotes.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region stabilized at 2240-2460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2380-2640 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2590-2600 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region stabilized at 2400-2700 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2550-2620 yuan/ton. Prices for small particles in Central China rose to 2500-2680 yuan/ton, while prices for large particles stabilized at 2560-2600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2660-2750 yuan/ton.

Future Forecast:

From the enterprise's perspective, urea enterprises currently have many pre-received orders, and some new export orders continue to be concluded, and port gathering orders are also continuously being dispatched, but domestic trades are rather flat. Moreover, due to increased equipment malfunctions in some enterprises, there has been a slight decline in the urea start-up rate and daily production, causing a tight supply in the market and an evident willingness for businesses to uphold prices. In terms of the urea market, India, being a significant exporter of urea from China, has greatly influenced the price changes in China's off-season market. The market reaction will change with the Indian marking.

In conclusion, the current market changes are supported by the positive effects of the Indian markings. It is expected that domestic urea market prices will be more likely to rise than fall in the short term.

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