Urea Daily Review: Local Agricultural Demand Follows Up, Market Slightly Fluctuates

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to the data calculated by Feidoodoo, as of April 11, the price index for small particle urea is 2147.86, a decrease of 2.73 from yesterday, down 0.13% day-on-day and 18.08% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR409 contract opened at 1893, reaching a high of 1916 and a low of 1877, with a settling price of 1895 and a closing price of 1882. The closing price is down by 6 compared to the last trading day, a decrease of 0.32%, with the day's range between 1877 and 1916. The May contract in Shandong had a basis of 198; today, the May contract increased by 28,884 positions, bringing the total to 280,350 positions.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market prices continued to be stable with minor declines. Enterprise quotations were mostly stable and strong, with some slightly decreasing, resulting in a fluctuating market.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2120-2210 yuan/ton. Prices in the East China region dropped to 2060-2120 yuan/ton. In Central China, small particle prices fell to 2060-2300 yuan/ton, and large particle prices fell to 2080-2170 yuan/ton. North China prices dropped to 1950-2160 yuan/ton. South China prices fell to 2220-2260 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2090-2100 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2070-2450 yuan/ton.

Factory Aspect:
Manufacturers are primarily fulfilling pending orders, with a slight decrease in inventory and a reduction in new orders, leading to a weaker state. The market sentiment is mostly holding prices stable. On the market side, there is a lack of momentum to chase higher prices, leading to a weak downward trend. The transaction follow-up atmosphere has slowed compared to earlier, with a flat and watchful market atmosphere. On the supply side, recent increases in industry device faults have slightly reduced industry supply, providing some support for urea prices. Overall, supply remains high. On the demand side, agriculture is in a fertilization preparation period, with necessary agricultural purchases following up. Industrial demand is weakening, and downstream compound fertilizer factories, affected by slower goods movement, have a weaker intention to purchase raw materials, maintaining minimal necessary purchases with limited follow-up.

Overall Perspective:
Currently, the urea market still shows a relaxed supply-demand situation. Market follow-up has slowed compared to earlier periods, agricultural demand follows up, and price declines are limited. It is expected that urea market prices will remain stable and fluctuate slightly in the short term.