Urea Daily Review: Low-End Market Sales Improve, Current Prices Mostly Stable

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to data from Feidoodoo, on January 3rd, the urea small particle price index was 2399.09, an increase of 6.82 from the previous day, a 0.29% rise compared to the previous day, and a 13.57% decrease year-over-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the urea UR405 contract opened at 2138, with a high of 2206, a low of 2132, a settlement price of 2174, and a closing price of 2184. The closing price increased by 64 compared to the previous day's settlement, up 3.02%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2132-2206. The 05 contract in the Shandong region had a basis of 136. The 05 contract reduced its holdings by 8926 hands today, with current holdings at 169,600 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices have slightly increased. Low-end market sales have recently been good, with most companies' prices remaining stable.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2350-2440 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2180-2420 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2340-2350 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China remained stable at 2350-2800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2290-2380 yuan/ton. In Central China, prices for small and medium particles rose to 2300-2550 yuan/ton, while prices for large particles remained stable at 2410-2460 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2450-2500 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory perspective, manufacturers are executing prior orders, with low-end orders in mainstream regions being well received and shipments being satisfactory, leading to mostly stable factory prices. Market-wise, the atmosphere has been positive recently, with increased trading activity, and new orders have somewhat decreased as sufficient orders are being received. In terms of supply, daily production in the industry is fluctuating at a low level, but with the gradual resumption of production, daily output is expected to show a stable and rising trend. Demand-wise, the market is mostly maintaining low-end purchases, with the downstream compound fertilizer market remaining weak, and overall demand continuing a wait-and-see approach.

Overall, recent urea market orders have been good, boosting market sentiment. Low-end supply has seen noticeable sales, and urea market prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.