Urea Daily Review: Market Guided by Export News, Fluctuations in Trader Sentiment

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to data calculated by Feidoodoo, the price index for small particle urea on March 5th was 2349.36, an increase of 12.41 from the previous day, representing a 0.53% rise on a day-to-day basis and a 15.65% decline year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

The opening price for today's urea UR405 contract was 2215, with the highest at 2246, the lowest at 2189, the settlement price at 2214, and the closing price at 2193. The closing price increased by 8 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, marking a 0.37% rise, with the day's fluctuation range between 2189 and 2246. The basis for the May contract in the Shandong area was 97. Today, the May contract saw a reduction of 13649 hands, with the current position at 181333 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices continued to adjust upwards, guided by export news, leading to positive development within the domestic market and a sustained upward trend.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region rose to 2330-2390 RMB/ton. In the North China region, prices increased to 2170-2410 RMB/ton. In the East China region, prices went up to 2270-2320 RMB/ton. In the South China region, prices rose to 2380-2450 RMB/ton. In the Central China region, prices for small and medium particles increased to 2280-2400 RMB/ton, and for large particles to 2340-2400 RMB/ton. In the Northwest region, prices rose to 2310-2320 RMB/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2300-2600 RMB/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory perspective, new orders are satisfactory with current pending orders providing support, leading to a tight supply in the market. Some manufacturers are limiting orders and becoming reluctant to sell. On the market side, export news remains unclear, with many awaiting guidance from this week's Nitrogen Association meeting. Trader sentiment remains volatile at high levels, with a bullish atmosphere prevalent. On the supply side, individual enterprises are halting maintenance, causing a slight decrease in industry start-up rates and a tight supply in the short term. On the demand side, the agricultural sector still needs green fertilization, with many following up on replenishments; industrial demand remains stable with expectations of release, leading to an overall positive demand outlook.

In summary, the current urea market is largely influenced by export news, which is expected to boost the trading atmosphere. It is anticipated that urea market prices will maintain a stable to slightly increasing trend in the short term.