Urea Daily Review: Market Influenced by Positive News, Trading Atmosphere Improves

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to data calculated by Feidoodoo, on March 4th, the price index for small particle urea was 2336.95, an increase of 17.27 from last Friday, a rise of 0.74%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.20%.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the opening price for the urea UR405 contract was 2190, with a high of 2201, a low of 2170, a settlement price of 2185, and a closing price of 2193. The closing price increased by 49 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, up by 2.29%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2170-2201. The basis in the Shandong area for the 05 contracts was 97; the 05 contracts saw an increase in open interest by 4342 hands today, with the current open interest standing at 194982 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices slightly explored upward, influenced by favorable factors, with continuous follow-up on new orders.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2310-2380 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2160-2380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2260-2320 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2380-2450 yuan/ton. In Central China, the price for small and medium particles rose to 2260-2380 yuan/ton, and the price for large particles rose to 2340-2380 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China remained stable at 2260-2270 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China remained stable at 2300-2600 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory side, after some manufacturers adjusted their quotes downward, the volume of new orders significantly increased, currently focusing on dispatching and receiving pre-orders, with continuous follow-up on new transactions. On the market side, after a slight increase in mainstream regional quotes, market transactions significantly increased. Coupled with the push from urea export news, market sentiment rebounded, leading to a rise in the market trend. In terms of supply, daily production was reduced to 181,700 tons, leading to a short-term decrease in spot supply from manufacturers, though it remains at a high level. Regarding demand, the market's essential needs persist, with current industrial and agricultural demand providing some support. There are one or two waves of green fertilizer demand in mainstream agricultural regions; industrial demand continues to follow, jointly supporting a rebound and upward adjustment in prices.

Overall, the current urea market trend is rebounding and rising, driven by export news, with a strong bullish atmosphere among traders. It is expected that the urea market prices will stabilize and adjust upward in the short term.