Urea Daily Review: Market Inquiries Increase Due to Export Rumors

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to data from Feidoodoo, the price index for small granule urea on October 12th stood at 2432.09, a decrease of 8.64 compared to the previous day, a 0.35% decline week-on-week, and a 6.16% decline year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the urea UR2401 contract opened at 2040, reaching a high of 2088 and a low of 2011, with a settlement price of 2050 and a closing price of 2087. Compared to the previous trading day, the closing price increased by 43, a 2.10% rise. The price fluctuated between 2011-2088 throughout the day, with a difference of 77. The 01 contract saw an increase in holdings of 12,464 hands, with a current total of 326,402 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market continued its downward trend, with the pace of the decline accelerating. The overall market transaction atmosphere has slightly improved, but some continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Specifically, the price in the Northeast region remained stable at 2420-2490 yuan/ton. The North China price remained stable at 2220-2490 yuan/ton. The Northwest region was priced at 2410-2420 yuan/ton. The Southwest region saw a decline to 2330-2800 yuan/ton. The East China region decreased to 2300-2370 yuan/ton. Central China's small granule price dropped to 2300-2620 yuan/ton, while the large granules remained stable at 2470-2510 yuan/ton. The South China price declined to 2470-2600 yuan/ton.

Future Forecast:

On the supply side, with the daily production increase and the restart of maintenance units, supply continues to remain high. For businesses, some are still fulfilling orders from before the October 1st holiday, with decreasing wait times for shipment. With the continuous decline in recent prices, companies are beginning to receive more orders. On the demand side, influenced by the low prices, the purchasing sentiment in the downstream has improved, and the demand from traders is gradually becoming more prominent, with many looking to restock at lower prices. On the export front, there's continuous news regarding exports in the market recently. The participation of Chinese goods in Indian tenders is significant, but the exact details need continuous attention moving forward.

Overall, due to export rumors, the current domestic urea market has seen a small amount of purchasing. It's expected that in the short term, the urea market price will remain stable at low prices and continue its declining trend at higher prices.