Urea Daily Review: Market Inquiries Increase, Prices Adjust Upwards Slightly

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on December 6th, the urea small granule price index was at 2525.59, an increase of 7.27 from the previous day, up by 0.29% compared to the previous day, and down by 9.70% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's urea UR2401 contract opened at 2387, with a high of 2462, a low of 2375, a settlement price of 2417, and a closing price of 2432. The closing price rose by 52 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, up by 2.18%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2375-2462. The Shandong region's basis for the 01 contract is 38. The 01 contract saw an increase of 424 positions today, with a total of 140240 positions held.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea prices continued to adjust upwards slightly. In recent days, agricultural replenishment inquiries have been active, with most manufacturers reporting good order receipts and a slight upward adjustment in prices.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2500-2530 RMB/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2350-2540 RMB/ton. Prices in Northwest China remained stable at 2500-2510 RMB/ton. Prices in Southwest China remained stable at 2480-2800 RMB/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2450-2500 RMB/ton. Prices for small and medium granules in Central China rose to 2450-2650 RMB/ton, while large granule prices remained stable at 2580-2660 RMB/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2620-2660 RMB/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory perspective, most are receiving good orders with new deals being closed, and a firm stance is supported by pending deliveries. In the market, inquiries are active, and with an expectation of reduced supply, many are entering the market early to purchase. The market is lively with a tendency for prices to rise, but under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the extent of the price rise is relatively limited. On the supply side, gas head enterprises will gradually stop production this month, and a few coal head enterprises have maintenance plans, expecting daily production to gradually decrease, lower than current levels. In terms of demand, agricultural inquiries in the market have increased recently. Although the demand is not concentrated, the overall market atmosphere has improved compared to earlier periods, and is expected to continue improving with the release of end-user demand in January.

Overall, the urea market is seeing good new orders, with an expectation of reduced supply. Businesses are actively inquiring, creating a positive market atmosphere. However, under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the price rise is under pressure. It is expected that the urea market prices will adjust upwards slightly in the short term.